2015 SBC Preview #8: Troy Trojans

For Trojan fans, 2014 couldn't have started any worse; getting blown out by nearly 40 points to their arch in-state rivals the Blazers was embarrassing-add on top the trouncing Troy took the following week to Duke and exasperated Troy fans were asking themselves "Can it get any worse?"

It did.

The shocking loss at home to recent FCS jump starts the Abilene Christian Wildcats was the final nail in the coffin for long time head coach Larry Blakeney. Blakeney had led the program from it's humble existence in Division II all the way to top of of the Sunbelt Conference. It only seemed like yesterday when the men of Troy ruled the 'Belt--reeling off five consecutive conference titles from 2006 to 2010, adding two New Orleans Bowl championship trophy's to boot along with two more additional post appearances (including nearly knocking off then #23 ranked Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl).

But alas after that 2010 season, it seemed like Blakeney was losing control of the program (perhaps losing his coaching swagger as well). In 2011, Troy struggled to achieve three wins and though they showed slight improvements the following two seasons (going 5-7 in '12 and 6-6 in '13), 2014 was a HUGE step back. It was such a drastic falling that Coach Blakeney announced his retirement midway through the season and for the first time since 1990, Troy was looking for a new head man.

Enter Neal Brown.

Brown was no stranger to the Troy community; from 2006 through 2009 he served many capacities at Troy, including QB and WR coach and eventually getting promoted as Offensive coordinator (at the time he became the youngest coordinator in all FBS football). He certainly left a lasting impression, with his offense among the most prolific in all the SBC during his time at Troy. He eventually left for Texas Tech for three seasons, where in his first season alone he had an immediate impact, helping to lead the Red Raiders as the #15 best offense in the country, including 6th in passing.

After spending the last two seasons at Kentucky, Troy came calling to Brown to help revitalize and rejuvenate the stale program. It's a bold move for the program and though its Brown's first attempt at head coaching, he has shown a solid, successful track record wherever he has gone. Make no mistake, the young hotshot coach will have his work cut out for him in his first season at the helm.

SCHEDULE:

Saturday Sep. 5		at NC State Wolfpack Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC	5:00 p.m. CT ESPN3	Buy Tickets
Saturday Sep. 12		Charleston Southern Buccaneers  Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL	TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 19		at Wisconsin Badgers  Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI	TBA	Buy Tickets
Saturday Sep. 26	---	Open Date	---	---
Saturday Oct. 3		South Alabama Jaguars Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 10		at Mississippi State Bulldogs  Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS	TBA	Buy Tickets
Saturday Oct. 17		Idaho Vandals (HC) Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 24		at New Mexico State Aggies  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 31		at Appalachian State Mountaineers Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 7		ULM Warhawks  Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 14		Georgia Southern Eagles Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 21	---	Open Date	---	---
Friday Nov. 27		at Georgia State Panthers Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Dec. 5		at Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns  Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA

Simply put, the OOC schedule is BRUTAL. Wisconsin is the reigning Big Ten Western Divisional champs; despite losing A LOT from their surprising 2014 run, the Bulldogs still have dynamic QB Dak Prescott and Josh Robinson returning (which will surely give the young Troy D a handful) and NC State looks to build off their 8-5 season which was capped off with a bowl victory over UCF.

The conference slate is actually not a bad line up; Missing the surging Texas State Bobcats and always competitive Arkansas State Red Wolves is a huge plus. The worst road game will be to Lafayette (which isn't until the very end of the season) and the additional three conference road games are against Sunbelt foes that went a combined 8-24 in conference play last season.

OUTLOOK/PREDICTIONS:

Make no mistake this could very easily be another rocky season for Troy. On top of implementing a new offensive scheme that the players must learn in a relatively short amount of time, the defense loses six starters from a squad that gave up 36 points per game in 2014. 

Troy more than likely goes 1-3 in the non-conference portion of their schedule and despite getting ULM, South Alabama and current conference champs Georgia Southern at home I think it would be phenomenal that they win one of those three. However, the Idaho, NMSU and Georgia State games are all very winnable and hopefully the offense has gelled in time for their season finale match-up against the Ragin Cajuns to give them a race for their money. Brown was a great get for Troy and in due time I have no doubt he'll have the Trojans contending for SBC titles, but not this season--this season is all about laying the foundation for the future.

DREAM SEASON: Troy knocks off Idaho, NMSU and Georgia State and can score an additional win at home against either ULM or USA to cap off a 4-8 season.

NIGHTMARE SEASON: The Wisconsin, NC State and Mississippi State games takes a huge toll on the Troy depth chart and the Trojans struggle throughout the remaining season to have a healthy squad as well win more than two games total.

2015 SBC Preview: #9 New Mexico State

It's been pretty rough going for the Aggies of New Mexico State University-Haven't been to a bowl game in over five decades, has gone from the Sunbelt to the WAC to being an Independent and then back to the 'Belt again in a matter of ten years and just here recently was sued by Oklahoma State University for infringing on their "Pistol Pete" logo (see above).

The good news was that both Universities resolved the matter; NMSU pays OSU $10 a year to keep using "classic Aggie" (as well as not selling more than 3,000 items of merchandise containing the logo). The bad news was that 2014 was another dismal year for the long suffering program. Going into the season, their depth chart included nearly three times as many freshmen and sophomores, 13, as seniors, five. To say that the NSMU Aggies were young would be putting midly.

Head man Doug Martin is entering his third season at the helm. Coming into Las Cruces, he inherited a program that until this signing year hadn't maintained an 80 man roster since the 2007 season. Despite the lack of man power and depth, Martin in his first two seasons didn't dive straight into the JUCO pool, still primarily signing high school players with a few JUCOs here and there (of the 24 players he signed in 2015, only three came from JUCOs with the remainder all from high schools). An interesting tactic, albeit one that's risky. 

Though he's only been at Las Cruces for a few months, NMSU AD Mario Moccia seemingly still supports his head coach all the way as of now, but sitting at 4-19 in two seasons, you have to wonder if the Aggies don't show any sign of positive momentum how patient will Moccia be.

SCHEDULE:

Saturday Sep. 5		at Florida Gators  Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL	TBA	Buy Tickets
Saturday Sep. 12		Georgia State Panthers Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 19		UTEP Miners Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 26	---	Open Date	---	---
Saturday Oct. 3		at New Mexico Lobos  University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 10		at Ole Miss Rebels  Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS	TBA	Buy Tickets
Saturday Oct. 17		at Georgia Southern Eagles Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 24		Troy Trojans  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 31		Idaho Vandals  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 7		at Texas State Bobcats  Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 14	---	Open Date	---	---
Saturday Nov. 21		at Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns  Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 28		Arkansas State Red Wolves Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Dec. 5		at ULM Warhawks  Malone Stadium, Monroe, LA

If the Aggies are going to have a relatively successful 2015 campaign, it's certainly not going to come easy. Catching SEC perennial powerhouse Florida in the swamp and facing a rising Ole Miss program is quite frankly going to suck; long time rivalry games against UTEP and the Lobos have been big thorns in NMSU's side for several seasons now and the fact the Aggies miss on playing App State in conference play is certainly not the biggest break they could've gotten, as they still have to travel to both Louisiana schools, San Marcos and defending champs Georgia Southern. 

Prediction:

The make or break aspect of the season is going to be whether the trial and error that has been the last two seasons will result in the maturing of this squad. Both NMSU administrators as well as Aggie fans have been very patient and understanding that this was going to be a timely rebuilding phase for Martin, but make no mistake its time to show some type of improvement from last year. I'm not talking about getting to a bowl game; heck, six wins seems to be a tall order with the schedule the Aggies are facing; however the Georgia State and Idaho games at home are very winnable, and if the defense can step up and play just a little bit more consistently than last year, it shouldn't be asking too much to get to three, perhaps even four wins.

My SBC team previews have sounded very similar I know (young, experienced teams with coaches that have stumbled out of the gates), however unlike Paul Petrino and Trent Miles, I have faith in Doug Martin; he's remain calm cool and collective, stuck to his rebuilding plan and I think New Mexico State will finally break to three wins this season.

DREAM SEASON: Aggies are able to nab at least one from either UTEP or New Mexico, take down the Vandals and Panthers at home and come up with an upset on the road in SBC play to get to four wins.

NIGHTMARE: The NMSU squad still shows little to no development or chemistry and only win two or less. Martin probably doesn't get fired, but will have his seat warmer bumper from mild to very very warm.

2015 SBC Preview #10: Georgia State

My oh my...The Panthers Football program may still be struggling to find any semblance of success, but you certainly have to say their current moniker is much more improved than their original logo (if you can't tell which is which then you obviously fail at life).

But logos certainly don't win football games, and neither does the Georgia State Panthers. Since their inception in 2010, GSU hasn't won more games than six (as an FCS Independent) and haven't won more than two games since 2012. In fact, they've yet to win a SINGLE SBC conference game. When you start a football program from scratch (and when you also consider how relatively fast GSU moved up among the ranks in collegiate football) you would certainly expect some growing pains. However, last season was supposed to the year of vast improvement for the Panthers; returning young talent with a year of experience under their belts (including outstanding QB Nick Arbuckle...who's also coming back), Panther faithful were hoping to not only break the losing streak, but to see some substantial improvement. Perhaps having to rally in the 4th quarter down nearly three possessions to beat Abilene Christian by one at home should've been a sign. It was very obvious by late October, early November this Georgia State squad had virtually given up on the season, losing their last five games of the season by an average of nearly 32 points a game.

Now going into 2015 and Georgia State appears to be right where they were last year; a lot of raw, young yet talented players returning (in fact they're 10th in the country in terms of returning players) but still branded with a murky, uneasy outlook on the '15 season.

Also returning is bewildered coach Trent Miles.

Miles, who had turned around a very bad Indiana State program into consistent competitors prior to becoming GSU's head man, has struggled mightily in Atlanta. Granted, the argument can be made that turning perennial losers into winners at the FCS level compared to the FBS level is a night and day situations. But in this day of college football, job security is constantly fluctuating, and losing streaks don't help. For Miles, you would have to think (for GSU fans hope) that he and his staff are in desperation mode to show any sign of life.

SCHEDULE:

Friday Sept. 4		Charlotte 49ers Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 12		at New Mexico State Aggies  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 19		at Oregon Ducks Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR	TBA	Buy Tickets
Saturday Sep. 26	---	Open Date	---	---
Saturday Oct. 3		Liberty Flames (HC) Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 10		Appalachian State Mountaineers Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 17		at Ball State Cardinals  Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 24	---	Open Date	---	---
Saturday Oct. 31		at Arkansas State Red Wolves Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 7		Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns  Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 14		at Texas State Bobcats  Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 21		South Alabama Jaguars Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Friday Nov. 27		Troy Trojans  Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Dec. 5		at Georgia Southern Eagles Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, GA

Taking the trip to the Autzen zoo out of the equation, this is a pretty sweet schedule. Getting CUSA newcomer Charlotte to start the season will definitely be a measuring stick to show whether the Panthers have improved any during the offseason and fall camp; Liberty shouldn't be taken lightly (ask App State), and traveling up to Muncie to take on Ball State will once again be another measuring stick game, this time to test their mid season form. SBC wise it's not a bad draw, with perhaps the toughest road trips being to Jonesboro and bitter instate rivals, Georgia Southern. Make no mistake for a still growing program like Georgia State, this could turn into a daunting schedule, but you would have to think being in their home state four out of their last five games, along with TWO BYES should prove to be positive aspects.

Nick Arbuckle was the shining star of an otherwise dull 2014 season; the junior transfer from California threw for over 3,000 yards and accumulated 23 touchdowns. You can bet that for the Panthers to have a relative successful '15 season, Arbuckle is going to have to continue to play lights out (also limiting his interceptions would probably help as well). But it's going to take an entire team effort; many times it felt that the young QB was trying to do it all by himself with almost little no help around him.

OUTLOOK:

Here's my problem; like I mentioned earlier, I'm having deja'vu. The Panthers had quite a bit returning back with the expectations of making some impact in conference play; Same outlook leading into 2012 and 2013 seasons... we all know how that turned out. And, just when you think the Panthers can't get any lower, they some how find a way to dig the losing hole deeper. The schedule is set up rather nicely...if you're any other SBC team. I can't help but feel the talent pool is still needing time to really develop and I'm just not sure if Miles is the guy to get the Georgia State program to the next level. 

DREAM SEASON: Panthers win 2 out of 4 OOC games, and are able to score their first win(s) in Sunbelt Conference play.

NIGHTMARE SEASON: Panthers go 0-12 and Trent Miles is looking for an assistant coaching job.