THE ASU BOWL

On what will be an incredibly cold November Saturday, in quite possibly some wintry mix, the Red Wolves of Arkansas State will host the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the first of (probably) many matchups that both fanbases have already dubbed "The ASU Bowl." Seeing how I'm already late on making my preview post and lacking in creativity at the moment, we'll just borrow the nickname! Arkansas State comes into this game winners of five out of their last six contests, outscoring their opponents nearly 100 points. However, App State certainly appears to be hitting their stride, as they are winners of three straight contests, including a thrilling last second field goal to secure their upset over ULM 31-29. Will the suddenly red hot Mountaineers make it four in a row and knock off another long time Sunbelt member, or can the Red Wolves buckle down and ice Appalachian State to make them 7-3 overall? 

Appalachian State At This Point

As previously mentioned, the Mountaineers have been rolling and reeled off three straight victories, including dominant performances over Troy and Georgia State. However, things didn't quite start off well for App State. The much hyped rematch between ASU and Michigan certainly didn't live up to its 2007 contest and the Mountaineers were blown out 52-14. Though they did quickly rebound and thumped the Camels of Campbell, App State would go on to lose four straight including 20+ loses to arch rival Georgia Southern and South Alabama. The biggest dud of the season actually came in a home overtime lost to the Liberty Flames. Sitting at a mere 1-5, many questioned if Appalachian State could really get to three wins. However, they've managed to shape up and cut down on fundamental mistakes and currently sit at 4-5 overall, hoping to continue their winning ways and push their win total to six.

Keys to the Game:

#1. Turnovers

When you look at App State's games so far this season, particularly comparing the stats from the games they've won and games they lost, their's one glaring difference between the two that makes it pretty apparent as to what led to their downfalls in the defeats and certainly helped in the victories:

Turnovers:

Games Mountaineers Lost:

-Michigan: No turnovers

-Southern Miss :3 turnovers

-Georgia Southern: 2 turnovers

-South Alabama: 3 turnovers

-Liberty:  4 turnovers

Games Mountaineers Won:

-Campbell: 1 turnover

-Troy: 1 turnover

-Georgia State:  48 yards, 

-ULM: 1 turnover

As you can see, when App State turns the ball over multiple times, they've lost. When you also consider that Arkansas state has forced 12 turnovers in their last two games, and the Red Wolves currently sit at +/- 6 on their turnover margin this season, if you're a Mountaineer fan you are PRAYING to the football gods that Appalachian State doesn't turn the ball over. Arkansas State has shown when you give them gifts, they will more times than not capitalize. If the Mountaineers want a chance at the upset, they have got to protect the ball at all costs.

Key #2: Quarterback Play

We have two very interesting and more importantly, clutch quarterbacks coming into the "ASU Bowl" and their play will at the least go a long way into determining the victor on Saturday. Freshman Taylor Lamb split time with previous starting QB Kameron Bryant, but by the Southern Miss game was given his first collegiate start. Despite losing a heart breaker to the Golden Eagles by one point, Lamb played a pretty decent game going 28/40 for 264 yards, two touchdowns but threw two picks. The App State coaches have stuck by him so far this season, and his season completion rate sits right at nearly 62% and has thrown 11 total touchdowns. He's also been the teams third leading rusher, carrying the ball 59 times for 376 and accounting for three additional touchdowns. He's had issues with throwing interceptions, with seven thrown so far this season. He's young yet he's shown he indeed has what it takes to be a dual threat, very capable quarterback.

On the flip side we have Fredi Knighten,who after having a part time role for ASU has exploded in his first true season as a starting quarterback. In just two seasons, he has ran for nearly 900 yards, thrown for 2,280 and has accounted for 27 total touchdowns. As every game has gone on this season, he's truly been improving, particularly in his deep, down-field passing. 

Both ASUs are going to need their quarterbacks to make plays and though Lamb certainly has shown flashes of big play capability, I just feel Knighten is a little bit more fined tuned.

WildCard: Weather

As of this blog, the only certain aspect of the weather Saturday is the temperature: COLD, COLD, COLD. Throughout the week, their have been several different "weather models" that range from cold rain to wintry mix, as well as giving the winter weather chance from 0% chance to 66%, depending on if you prefer Weather Channel or Accuweather. The Mountaineers faithful certainly seem confident the cold weather will not negatively effect their beloved squad, some even thinking it'll give them the winning edge. While I certainly think many of the Red Wolves players are quite accustomed to playing in the cold, if their is some type of wintry weather during the game, you would have to think it may play a huge factor, especially in the play calling and turnover battle (not to mention the crowd at Centennial Bank Stadium).

PREDICTION:

Despite extremely crappy, cold and possibly wet conditions, Red Wolves will howl to seven victories in a surprisingly low scoring, field position battle.

Even if their actually is no precipitation whatsoever, both teams want this badly (duh)-but will be wary of the others potent offense. After a sudden yet fantastic performance at absolutely shutting down the Jaguars attack (especially their running game) the Red Wolves defense is back after a waning performance from the the La-La and Idaho games. Both defenses will be gunning for the quarterbacks in order to get them uncomfortable and out of sync, but Arkansas State will rattle Lamb a little bit more due to his youth. I wouldn't be shocked if the game is tied or it's a one posession lead for either team going into the 4th, but with dynamic play-maker JD Mckissic back, Red Wolves will make the clutch and timely plays and pull away in the 4th from a fiesty Appalachian State squad

SCORE PREDICTION: Astate 28, App State 17

Red Wolves Obliterate Wounded Jaguars

What Happened:

This picture perfectly sums up the day in Jonesboro, Arkansas; it never was a game really...it was a shellacking.

The Red Wolves of Arkansas State completely  annihilated the South Alabama Jaguars to improve to 6-3 on the season, making the squad bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season. For the most part the Red Wolves absolutely imposed their will on the Jaguars and USA just seemed to be overwhelmed quickly and just couldn't get anything going. Still, the ASU offense didn't quite play a solid game, stalling once again on a 4th and short on the USA 5-yard line, Ferguson missing a 33 yard field goal try and adding an additional eight penalties for 77 yards to their already ridiculously HIGH penalty count (many primarily came from the defensive side of the ball). Despite the hiccups, ASU handed South Alabama their worst program lost in their brief history, not to mention scoring 45 points on defense that had only allowed an average of 20 points going into yesterday's game, and that's something not to be taken lightly.  Perhaps the two biggest story lines that came out of this game were the South Al injuries and the Red Wolves defense; after allowing over 600 yards rushing in their last two games with 12 touchdowns,  the Arkansas State D only allowed 111 on the ground (majority of those yards coming against the scrubs in the 4th) and zero rushing scores. Defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen certainly tweaked the defense and despite stud defender Rocky Hayes getting ejected early in the first quarter for targeting, the defense remained absolutely stout, only allowing the Jaguars to gain 42 yards at half with three points (ending result being 201 yards and 10 points), giving up only ONE THIRD DOWN CONVERSION out of 12 attempts, and forcing four turnovers on the day.

Going into Saturday, I thought this would be the Packs toughest remaining opponent, and a part of me thinks it still would've been...if USA weren't so banged up. It was no secret the Jaguars were hurting throughout the roster, and ultimately eight starters ended up not playing for South Al (including starting quarterback Brandon Bridge). On top of that, junior Marvin Shinn suffered a horrific broken leg early in the first quarter, and it's been reported he stayed behind in Jonesboro to have surgery on his leg today prior to being transported back to Mobile. It was very obvious once the game started and progressed that USA's talent and depth really drops off and were no match for the ASU first string.

Player of the Game: Fredi Knighten 

"Lightnin" Fredi Knighten was once again spot on for his Red Wolves, going 17/32 passing for 187 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. On top of that, he ran for an additional 80 yards with one TD. As this season has progressed, Knighten has certainly been maturing as a quarterback and he certainly doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

My Thoughts/Looking Ahead:

"I honestly did not see 45-10 coming...(I) felt really comfortable that this was going to be a slugfest to the end," Blake Anderson said during his post game presser. I am right there with him; Despite the long injury list, I still thought this Jaguar squad had enough talent, particularly on the defensive side, to keep it a close game with the Pack. On top of that, with bowl eligibility on the line would've added a little bit more of a motivational boost for USA. However, such wasn't the case and the Red Wolves took fully advantage of a very depleted South Al squad. All in all, Astate played a very solid game and if they keep up this level of play I have no doubt the ASU team can roll to a 9-3 regular season record.

With that said, gotta stay focus and play one game at a time. Their's still three games remaining and the next one up won't come easy. The Mountaineers of App State, after losing their first five of six games, have appeared to have gotten their act together with extremely young group of players and won three straight. They remind me of Idaho-very capable offense (including the 21st rushing team in the nation) and yet having a shaky defense (giving up about 28 points a game). ASU can't be over looking them for their Thursday night ESPNU date against Texas State; if the Mountaineers can get their running game going against ASU, they can easily keep up scoring wise with the Red Wolves. Running defense will have to once again step up for the Pack to score win number seven.

Red Wolves vs Jagaurs: A Fight for the Right to Bowl

Two teams...both have had their high moments as well as their lows....quite a few injuries for both teams, yet the two football squads both have high aspirations for the '14 season. One of them has a good chance to achieve their goal, but it'll come at the expense of the other. Who will fill that role? Let's find out!

SOUTH AL: THEIR 2014 SEASON SO FAR...

Many had tabulate the Jaguars of South Alabama to be a "dark horse" for the Sunbelt crown going into the '14 season, though they didn't begin with a hot start. Following their season opening victory on the road against Kent State, USA would be held to zero touchdowns for the next two games against Mississippi State and Georgia Southern (only scoring a combined nine points from field goals). Granted, the Bulldogs and Eagles are playing phenomenal football though Jaguar fans couldn't help but feel disappointed by the lack of execution and competitiveness, especially since both games were in Mobile. 

However, South Al would be able to turn things around and win their next four contests winning at Idaho, at Appalachian State, followed by back to back home victories over Georgia State and in-state rival Troy. After only averaging barely 11 points a game in September it seemed the offense had righted the sinking ship and improved their scoring average to nearly 35 in the month of October...

...then last Saturday on the road in Lafayette, South Al's offense was virtually non-existent; they scored 9 points the entire game (missed a PAT after their second quarter TD). Though USA was neck in neck with the Cajuns, their offense sputtered and misfired for majority of the game and if it weren't for the Jaguar defense playing their hearts out, Lafayette could've made it an ugly game. However, the Jaguars lost in Cajunland 19-9, and ended their winning streak. They now travel to Jonesboro with a 5-3 record overall, 4-2 in SBC play.

KEY POINTS/STATS FOR THE GAME:

ASU's Running D (or Lack Of)

In case you missed this little tib-bit from my review of ASU's iffy victory over the Vandals, let me reiterate this stat: in their last TWO GAMES, the Red Wolves defense has surrendered over 660 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns....and that's not a misprint. South Al's best chance at scoring their first victory over Arkansas State is to establish and cram the run DOWN ASU's throat, over and over again. It worked fabulously for Lafayette, and had Idaho found a way to somehow not lose the ball eight times, probably would've scored the upset over the Pack...which leads me to my next key....

Turnover Battle

The reason why ASU is 5-3 and not 4-4 is because of eight Vandals turnovers-four from the air and four from the ground. You can run and pass to your delight but if you cough the ball up THAT many times, you're almost certain to lose. Red Wolves took advantage of nearly every takeaway and ended up securing a 16 point victory. The Jaguars have been pretty good by not having a whole lot of turnovers (their worst being four against the now number one team in the country, Mississippi State). In fact, up until their heartbreaking fumble on the Cajuns 4 yard line last week, USA hadn't had a single turnover since their September 27th trip to the Kibbie Dome. As obvious as this will sound, it will certainly never ring truer than in this game: whoever limits their mistakes and capitalizes on the gifts will most certainly win, which brings me to key #3...

Penalties...Good God.

Their's NO WAY to sugar coat this, so I'll be blunt: both teams have been GOD AWFUL when it comes to penalties. ASU has had 64 penalties for 546 yards, while the Jaguars have totaled 57 for 517. Combined, that's 121 penalties for 1063 yards (that's over half of a mile worth of penalties!!). It may or may not be THE deciding facor in this game, but you'd have to think whoever can play a cleaner game will have the better opportunity at victory.

Kickers

I absolutely think this will be a tough, back and forth affair and it could possibly come  down to field position, which you know that means: kicking game. If you read my previous post, you know my disdain for ASU kicker Luke Ferguson's inconsistent kicking throughout the season. In terms of percentage, Ferguson has only made 58% of his field goal attempts this year (most coming from 20-29 yards out) and has missed five PATs already this year. On the flip side for South Alabama, they've employed two kickers for their field goals and XPTs-Aleem Sunannon and Grant McLaurin. While both haven't had overly impressive numbers, combined they've only missed three extra points and three field goal attempts. Now Luke does have a little bit stronger of a leg when it comes to punting and kickoffs, (I won't bother throwing additional numbers but if you don't take my word you can compare Luke's kicking stats Here and USA's here) but at the end of the day points matter more than net yards.

Prediction: Red Wolves once again squeak by last second against the Jags

The South Alabama Jaguars can win this Saturday. And if Arkansas State once again starts to sputter on offense as well as can't tackle or stop the USA running game, they could win in the double digits. They boast a very balanced offensive attack, averaging 204 passing yards and 194 yards rushing a game. On top of that, their defense has played stout for most of the season, only allowing 20 points a game. However, when you consider that AL.com reported today that the Jaguars have a lot of key players that are either questionable, game time decisions or even out (including starting QB Brandon Bridge and stud LB Maleki Harris), and then throw on top of that having to travel to Arkansas State, where they've only lost three Sunbelt Conference games at home since the 2010 season, I think Red Wolves have a the slight edge, even if Bridge ends up playing for South Alabama. The Red Wolves DO NOT want this turning into a defensive game or a battle of the field goal game-both will end up favoring South Alabama.

This will be a very close affair; USA will once again pound away at the ASU defense, and though they will give up chunks of yards on the ground, I think ASU defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen will be able to adjust and at least keep the Jags from running up and down the field. USA will still be able to move the ball and score, but so will Arkansas State. Their will be penalties and their will be turnovers; once again, I think they'll be an extremely key and costly turnover for the opposing Jaguars and the Red Wolves will capitalize on it and will pull out a hard fought affair from both squads.

Arkansas State-34

South Alabama-28

Scrappy Vandals Makes It Interesting, Opportunistic Red Wolves Seize the 'W'

In my previous prediction blog, I predicted the Red Wolves would get the victory, with a score of 42-28. While I was nearly spot on score wise (44-28) the way that I predicted the result would come about was WWWAAAYYY off. Lets not waste any more time, we'll jump right into the review and my grades for Astate's three phases of the game.

DEFENSE: B-

Where to  begin? Well lets get the bad out of the way; three weeks ago, the Cajuns completely exposed the weakness of the Red Wolves defense...the run D. Which in a way was rather bizarre because it had been so stout prior to that game. But Lafayette kept running it straight up the middle and found the holes and gashed the Astate Defense all night. Despite only averaging 119 yards on the ground, Idaho took what they saw from the Cajuns game and completely exploited it. The Vandals kept hammering at the Red Wolves and soon enough it started paying off for them, and paying big time. Idaho ended up with nearly 245 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs. The rushing game was working so well for Idaho, that they actually  threw for least amount of passing yards all season (206 yards). You're probably wondering "Jake, hearing a lot of negative here...why do you still give the defense a 'B-' for a grade?

Yes that's right...Idaho fumbled within literally inches from scoring and tying the game, and Rocky took it 93 yards for a touchdown. Though Idaho would answer back with another long, methodical drive, that wouldn't be the only turnover Astate would force that night. In fact, the Red Wolves would end up with EIGHT TAKEAWAYS...which resulted in 35 of Arkansas State's 44 points. Without those fumbles and interceptions, this game would've been a lost for ASU. So yes, the run defense got burned but the D made up for the chunks of yards given up on the ground with a boat load of turnovers and hence that's why I give them the B-.

OFFENSE: C+

First off, before I continue, hats off to Flash Gordon-the man is a beast and ASU is extremely lucky to have ended up with him in a Red Wolves uni...that young man could easily be starting for just about any squad in the county. Gordon ended up with 17 carries for 105 yards and 5 touchdowns. With that said...

The offense really reverted back to it's early season form, with inconsistent play. First quarter, the Pack was seemingly able to move the ball with relative ease, despite only a touchdown to show for it; Second quarter, they had 17 plays 54 yards and only a field goal. Third quarter, back to back three and outs, but when Idaho muffed the punt and ASU recovered, it seemingly ignited a fire and Astate was able to score on back to back possessions to end the that quarter. And finally in the 4th quarter, the 'Pack were able to score another 14 points (could've been 17 but Luke Furgeson missed a 40 yard field goal attempt) and force three turnovers along with a Idaho turn over on downs to secure the victory.

One thing is certain...when JD Mckissic is not 100% or even on the field, it definitely effects the play of this team. Though JD only played limited amount before being held out the remainder of the game, his one reception for 30 yards not only helped sustain a much needed Astate drive, but secured a field goal kick that gave ASU the halftime lead at that point, 17-14.

Ultimately, I gave them a C+ because while we still were able to 13 more points above their scoring average (31) and take full advantage of Vandal mistakes, the moments of inconsistency along with the penalty bug coming back in a large fashion and has me a little concerned that mistakes that seemingly looked corrected (Even in the UL lost) has crept back.

SPECIAL TEAMS: C

I put this highlight here not because it was clutch or even fantastic, but to make a point; how in the fudge can you make a 28 yard attempt...pretty much straight up the middle (you can say a tad to the left) but NOT MAKE A EXTRA POINT STRAIGHT UP THE MIDDLE?? Despite being inside a dome where their isn't any wind, I can let the 40 yarder he missed slide, but Ferguson's constant mental lapses in the kicking game is frustrating; so far he's been 7/12 on field goals and has already missed 4 PATs.  At some point, his kick disparities are going to bite his team on the rear end. 

In fact, this grade is not lower simply by the fact of the punt coverage team getting a fumble recovery which set up a MUCH needed score in the 3rd quarter. 

FINAL THOUGHTS/LOOKING AHEAD

Was it a Georgia State-esque victory like I had predicted in my previous post? Nope. I tip my hats off to the Vandals; they certainly had a game-plan that once it got rolling really had the Red Wolves on the ropes for 2 quarters. However, the unbelievable amount of turnovers Idaho had simply was too much for them (heck, any team) to overcome.

If ASU wants to win out and get to 9 regular season wins, they better find a patch or better yet, find a way to fix this "lack" of a run defense and FAST. In their last two games, the Pack has now given up over 660  yards on the ground for 12 TOUCHDOWNS...12. Despite only rushing for 60 yards in their lost to the Cajuns, South Alabama still boasts an impressive rushing attack, averaging over 190 yards a game. The Jaguars have won four out of their last five contests on the gridiron and you can bet they're going pound the ball right at the Arkansas State D.

  ARKANSAS STATE VS. IDAHO VANDALS-BREAKDOWN


After an emotional lost to their bitter rivals the Cajuns, the Pack had twelve days to get mentally refocused, heal up, and start preparing for their final five games of the 2014 season, which starts in extremely far-off Moscow, Idaho to take on the Vandals. Can the Red Wolves reload and right the ship or will the Vandals be able to further rain on Arkansas State's parade?

OFFENSE: Red Wolves Have the Edge, but Vandals Passing is something to be Wary About

When comparing the two squads on paper, it would seem pretty obvious that the Red Wolves have the more potent of offenses and I agree. Their's no denying that Arkansas State scores and often times have scored in furious fits. They've only been help to under 20 points once this season, and that was against an improving Tennessee team. The Vandals know that their defense hasn't been stopping anybody this season, giving up an average of 469 yards a game; take into account Red Wolves are coming into Moscow averaging 473 total offensive yards along with 31 points a game and it's pretty evident Idaho's trend of giving up chunks of yards and points will probably continue. Their saving grace is in their passing offense, which (believe it or not) is 18th in the nation, averaging over 305 yards a game. They'll definitely try to bomb it away on the Red Wolves in order to keep up, but considering how speedy the secondary is for Arkansas State, Idaho will have to establish a running game in order for the pass to open up. The problem is Idaho is only averaging around 119 yards on the ground; that's barely 30 yards a quarter. So ultimately,while impressive in the passing department, it makes the Vandals very one dimensional on offense; if you want see what happened the last time Arkansas State took on a pass happy, one dimensional conference foe on the road, (that also plays in a dome) check out their Georgia State highlights.

DEFENSE: Despite the Previous outing, Red Wolves Should Still Have the Talent Edge on Vandals.

Simply put, Red Wolves got burned badly by the run against Louisiana Lafayette. Going into that game, Arkansas State was boasting the league's best run defense, barely allowing 115 yards. The Ragin Cajuns steamed rolled and rushed for 419 yards and EIGHT RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS. Now, if Idaho had any semblance of a running game, this might spell trouble for Arkansas State; but they don't. Idaho only has had three games this season where they've rushed for more than 100 yards (and their running average stat bloated up after their victory of NMSU, where they ran for a season high 310 yards). I suspect Idaho will still try to get a run game going against ASU, and wouldn't be shocked if they ran via the Pistol (which was working effectively against the Red Wolves). But this isn't the Cajun O-Line the ASU Defense will be going against, so I'm no too terribly worried they'll be whipped as badly. What does concern me and could be the Vandals saving grace is the turnovers; as spectacular as Fredi has been playing, he has been a turnover machine and the Vandals D has been averaging 2 takeaways a game. If Idaho can match their season average (if not more) they'll make this a game.

MISC: KIBBIE DOME

Moscow, Idaho is located in the northwesterly part of the state. The city (with a population of a little over 23,000) is extremely difficult to travel to, especially if you're a football team. Many teams actually travel to Spokane, Washington, then bus southwards for over an hour and a half until they reach Moscow (which is what Astate is doing). It's an extremely lengthy, mind numbing trip. We haven't given gotten to the venue; the Kibbie Dome.

The Kibbie Dome hosts both the football and basketball teams (along with many other sporting and entertainment events) and has a max capacity of about 16,000.  Despite being only 1-6 on the season, the Vandals are still averaging 14,938 patrons. With such a small, intimate environment, the noise factor will definitely play a role in this game. I would dare to say the Red Wolves haven't faced a loud, hostile environment since the Tennessee game back in September.

PREDICTION: Red Wolves Should Bounce Back

Make no mistake, this is still a trap game for the Pack. South Alabama looms next Saturday in Jonesboro and if the Jaguars can pull off another improbable victory over the Cajuns, it makes the November 8th match-up all the more important. Idaho is hoping Arkansas State not only has that thought in mind, but also is still lingering over the defeat at the hands of the Cajuns. If this game had been played immediately following the lost, I would have feared both would have occurred. However, Arkansas State has had nearly 2 weeks to shake off the Lafayette game. Despite the long travel, they should be WELL RESTED and mended up. Though the game is ultimately played on the field, everything on paper and leading up to this point says Arkansas State is more talented team, with a lot to play for. 

Arkansas State needs to come out swinging right out of the gate, and take Idaho and their fans out of this game early. If their's any sluggish play or turnover/penalty problems, then the Red Wolves could have a fight on their hands. However, this isn't Harsin or his staff; I have full confidence Anderson and Crew will have Arkansas State prepared and wouldn't be surprsised if this turns into another Georgia State game.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Arkansas State and Idaho will have a competitive first quarter, but the explosive play of Fredi Knighten, a trick play followed with a clutch forced turnover and the Red Wolves will sail away from the Vandals by the second quarter and the game. ASTATE 42, Idaho 28

Reaction to Week 7 Sunbelt Action

Reactions to Week 7 

New Mexico State @ Troy
(My Prediction: 28-17 NMSU)
(Actual Result: Troy 41-24)

The Trojans certainly made sure Larry Blakeney wasn't going to lose his final homecoming game at Troy. The Trojans had their best showing of the 2014 season, having over 570 total yards, and forcing 4 Aggies turnovers in their 17 point victory. The Aggies just never could get anything going consistently, and never were able to take a lead getting as close as 3 early, then never closer than 10 points for the remainder of the game. It's looking like whatever early momentum New Mexico State had is officially flushed down the toilet, and with a depleted and demoralized App State coming to Troy next Saturday, Trojans look to make a roaring second half season comeback.


Arkansas State @ Georgia State
(My Prediction: 34-27 ASU
Actual Results: 52-10 ASU)

Wow...what a performance by the Red Wolves. This has been the most complete game the Pack has played all season, completely steam rolling the Panthers both offensively and defensively. Despite only having 1 win on the season coming into the game, Georgia State had been looking very competitive all season long and were bringing in a very high scoring, pass happy offense. I think I can speak for both Red Wolves and Panthers fans alike when I say for a squad to give preseason favs Lafayette all they could handle a week before, to only having 269 total yards and 10 points on homecoming was a little surprising. Heading into the BYE, Red Wolves are on cloud 9 whereas Georgia State are left wondering when will they finally get that coveted 1st Sunbelt Conference win.



Idaho @ Georgia Southern
(My Prediction: 45-23 Ga. Southern)
(Actual Results: 47-24 Ga. Southern)

Though the game went right as about as I expected, still can't help but applaud the Vandals effort. Definitely were trying to throw all the stops to get the upset win, jumping to an early lead and then going for multiple 4th down attempts but the Eagles machine simply wore down the Vandals and rumbled on to another victory. Georgia Southern is looking unstoppable for the time being, and with their hardest games left appearing to be at Texas State and at Navy (which I'm definitely looking forward to), it's starting to appear the once thought of out side shot of winning the conference is starting to turn into reality.

Liberty @ Appalachian State
(My Prediction: 45-27 App. State)
(Actual Results: 55-48 OT Liberty)

Appalachian State started off brilliantly, going for and recovering an onside kick to start the game and scoring the very next play. Then horrid mistakes began to make their way into the game, first with the Mountaineers scoring on a Liberty fumbling, then Appalachian State returning the favor a few series later, with the Flames taking a 39 yard fumble return for a score. Ultimately, penalties along with two missed field goals and an interception thrown in OT doomed Appalachian State and Liberty scored the win they coveted over the Belt. Mountaineers have lost 4 straight, and with Troy looking to have found an offense now, it's certainly appearing the Mountaineers may not even get to 4 wins on the season.


ULM @ Kentucky
(My Prediction: 49-26 Kentucky)
(Actual Prediction: 48-14)

ULM certainly jumped out to a fast start, surprising the Wildcats and led 14-3 to end the first. It certainly appeared ULM might give Kentucky all they could handle early...then the Wildcats offense woke up and scored on a 83 yard touchdown pass to get within 4, 14-10. Then Pete Thomas threw a pick six...and before you know it Kentucky goes on to pile on another 38 unanswered points to crush ULM 48-14. Monroe just looked inept for most of the game, not even getting to 80 rushing yards and turning the ball over two more times. The BYE couldn't have come at a better time for the Warhawks, and if they hope to have any semblance of a successful season they have to get their offensive woes sorted out before hosting a potentially red hot Texas State squad.

Sunbelt Week Seven Thoughts and Predictions

Game of the Week: New Mexico State @ Troy
Despite it being a bye week for the men of Troy last week, they definitely were making the top headlines with the sudden (albeit NOT surprising announcement) of Larry Blakeney's retirement from the program, and it's that fact alone I pick this as my SBC game of the week. The Trojans have been abysmal so far, going 0-5 in the 2014 campaign (the worst stretch so far in Blakeney's 23 years at Troy). However, they did show some life and even some fight in their 2 point losing effort to the Warhawks two weeks ago, and now that the team knows their's only going to be 4 home games left in Blakeney's tenure, have to wonder if this will inspire the team to make sure he doesn't go out winless in Troy. The Aggies meanwhile have lost 4 straight and are desperate to salvage the 2014 season. Both squads have given up nearly 40 points a game, and yet this game might come down to which team can make the crucial defensive stop.

(PREDICTION: Despite it being homecoming for Troy ((and Larry's last one at that)), I still think New Mexico State has more of a consistent, balanced offense and will be able to stop their bleeding. 28-17 NMSU)


Arkansas State @ Georgia State
The Red Wolves have been a very undisciplined sqad; in 5 games they have averaged 8 penalties a game for 73 yards. On top of that atrocious stat, the pack has been turning the ball over nearly 2 1/2 times a game. Yet somehow, Astate is 3-2 and 1-0 in 2014. They travel to Atlanta to face a wounded yet hungry Panthers team still looking for their first ever SBC conference win, and looking to get it in front of a homecoming crowd. Can they do it? Quite possibily. Georgia State has got quite a potent offense, averaging over 300 passing yards and scoring about 30 points a game so far. However, can they keep up those averages against a fast and stingy Astate defense that ranks #50 out of 128 in FBS? 

(PREDICTION: If Red Wolves want to continue their winning ways and stay in the hunt for their 4th conference title, they HAVE to start limiting the penalties and the turnovers. Until that happens, every team they play has a great chance to win. Yet with that being said, I've been impressed with how they've continued to defy the odds and win, and I think they'll find a way-in the 4th-to pull away from Georgia State. 34-27 ASU)


Idaho @ Georgia Southern
The Eagles continue to be the darlings of the conference, and are looking to continue their seemingly historic run in their first full year as an FBS member. Though it took awhile to get going, Georgia Southern rattled off 29 unanswered points after being down 14-0 early in the game to secure their 4th win on the season. Georgia Southern now carried their 4-2, 3-0 conference record into their homecoming match up with the lowly Idaho Vandals. Despite being 0-5 Idaho boasts the nations #13 passing game, averaging almost 330 yards a game. They're going to need the passing game as the Eagles look to utilize their #1 ranked rushing attack to methodically drive, score and kill the clock (their's only been two times this season that the Eagles haven't held onto the bowl longer than 30 minutes).

PREDICTION: The Vandals have been a hard team to read so far this season; They've been more competitive and offensively more productive on the road than at home. The trend would appear to be that they should put up big numbers in Statesboro. Whether they do or not will be irrelevant as the Eagles should be the more talented and motivated team and should roll over Idaho. 45-23 Ga. Sou

Liberty @ Appalachian State
It's been a bumpy start for the Mountaineers in their first year at the FBS level. It seems since that heart breaking 21-20 lost to Southern Miss nearly three weeks ago, App State hasn't been able to collect themselves and rebound, getting trounced 81-35 in their past two games. However, after taking their licks to the seemingly better teams of the belt, Mountaineers will have a chance to redeem their 2014 season with a road trip to the woeful 0-5 Troy coming up, followed by a home match-up with a Georgia State team that (AS OF THIS POSTING) still hasn't won a conference game in their two year stint in the league. It's a pretty good setup...ASSUMING they can get bye a pesky Liberty Flames team. While their's nothing too particularly special about this Flames unit, gotta assume and expect Liberty will have some extra motivation to make a show (and dare I say an example) to the Sunbelt world by knocking off Appalachian State.

PREDICTION: The Flames will come out swinging hard, and I wouldn't be shocked if they even have a lead at half. Appalachian State will fight back and with their balanced offense be able to pull away and get their second victory on the season. 45-27 APP

ULM @ Kentucky
If you're a ULM Warhawks fan, you have to got to be wondering what will it take for this team to get over the hump and take the next step; one minute you're 3-1 with a 2-0 conference mark heading into a big time game against Arkansas State and in a flash, you've just lost by 14 points and now face a DAUNTING schedule, playing on the road 3 out of the next 4 contests; what makes this even worse is the fact two of the three opponents are SEC teams. Can it get any worse? Why yes it can-this isn't the Wildcats of old as this squad was only one or two plays away from being 5-0 and being on top of the SEC East. Still, they pack a potent offense and their defense is only allowing 19 points a game. When you consider that ULM is barely averaging 18 points a game, this just doesn't bode well for ULM.

PREDICTION: ULM has been the giant killers for the Sunbelt and already have a victory notched in their belt against Kentucky. However, they won't be able to add to it this time around as Kentucky is too talented and too hot of a team for an inconsistent Warhawks squad to topple. 49-26 Kentucky

GAMES I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO FOR EACH DIV. I ARKANSAS TEAM

 WOO PIG...

HOWL YES...

ROAR!!!!!

GO U-C-A BEARS!

We are only a little over a week and a half away from the first kickoff for the 2014 NCAA College Football Season (and I can't BEGIN to tell you how desperate I am for it to start!). 

In anticipation for it, I decided to dedicate a blog looking at which home and away match up I find either intriguing and/or extremely important for each of the Natural State's Division I teams. Without further adieu, let's "Kick" things off with the big boys on the hill... (**NOTE: THE SCHEDULE GRAPHICS ARE NO LONGER ACCURATE AND ARE JUST BEING USED FOR VISUAL SAKE**).

                                                                      ARKANSAS:

                                 MY HOME GAME PICK: LSU TIGERS (Sat. November 15)

 Since it was announced late last year that these two would no longer be playing one another the day after Thanksgiving as well as not playing one another as each other's finale', majority of Hogs fans have been pretty furious over the revelations. It was bad enough that the rivalry game was moved from Little Rock to Fayetteville, but now this?? The whole controversy really stems back to the "Fayetteville vs Little Rock" debate, and I'm very curious as to how the Northwest Fans will respond (really show up) in the coming years. When the two played in Fayetteville back in November 2012, it was the third largest November crowd DW had seen in a 12 year span with just over 71,000 (only two Tennessee match ups from 2006 and 2011 had  more with just over 72,000+ in attendance in the month of November). It was already a pretty one sided rivalry affair, with Hogs fans more hyped for this one over LSU fans and though I highly doubt moving the game a little earlier in the season will drastically change that aspect in both fan bases, this has turned into a pretty fun, exhilarating trophy game in last few seasons and I look forward to another spirited contest in the Hill come early November.


              MY ROAD PICK: TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (SAT., September 13)

This picture was taken in November, 1967. The underdog Red Raiders shocked the Razorbacks, and kept Arkansas out of bowl contention that season. In fact, the last time both the Hogs and Texas Tech played one another (in '91 and 92), the results were much the same-A 'W' for Red Raiders, and double 'L' for the Hogs. Fast forward over 20 years later, and both these teams as well as the landscape of college football has drastically changed-though if you think about it, both these squads have followed very similar paths; both have had extremely high moments, taken down the big dogs, ranked in the top ten and also have had very low moments, including losing coaches in rather embarrassing, public fashion. Though Arkansas fans feel very confident going to Lubbock come September (and why not? They are 28-7 overall in the series) I wonder if the Hogs 'D' will be able to stop let alone contain this high flying, explosive offensive that the Red Raiders will be utilizing. If the offense can't at least keep up with Texas Tech, it might be a long afternoon in west Texas.

                                                                 ARKANSAS STATE

                     HOME GAME THAT'S MOST IMPORTANT: ULM WARHAWKS

This was a tough pick between the Warhawks or Utah State.

Though in my eyes, the Utah State game is more meaningful in terms of

outside perception (a measuring stick against a quality team from 

another 'G5' conference), the ULM game got my pick because of two

reasons: Repeating as Conference champs and increasing ASU's odds

of getting back to a bowl game. After this matchup, the Red Wolves are on the road for the remainder of October, traveling to Atlanta, Cajunland (AKA Lafayette), and concluding in freakin' Moscow, Idaho! Though the Red Wolves should be the overall better team than Georgia State and Idaho, the Louisiana-Lafayette game is going to be an extremely tough matchup for the Pack, and if ASU should drop an 'L' to the Cajuns, ASU CANNOT afford any additional conference loses. If Arkansas State can get a win against both Utah State and ULM, squeeze out 2 of three in that nasty stretch afterwards, then by the time they return home against South Alabama, they could be sitting at 5-3, 3-1 in conference play. That ULM win early on could be the difference.

                         AWAY GAME THAT'S MOST IMPORTANT: Louisana Lafayette

Who else would this be? The last three seasons, both the Cajuns and the Red Wolves have become the faces and the perennial top guns in the Sunbelt Conference. But because Lafayette has been able to maintain their head man, Mark Hudspeth, and impressive three straight wins in their back-to-back-to-back soldout bowl games in New Orleans, the Cajuns have become the darlings of the league. All the beat writers have ULL as undisputed picks to be the conference champs this year, and if ASU wants a 'four-peat' and truly claim what they feel is their spot as the face of the Sunbelt, it has to take to down the Cajuns in Lafayette on a Tuesday night on national tv.

                                                            ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

                                                               ALABAMA A&M:

UAPB has a tough time when it comes to playing the Alabama A&M Bulldogs...I mean TOUGH. UAPB has only beaten the Bulldogs three times out of the last thirteen matchups! (In an interesting note, one of the those victories came in 2006...only to lose to the Bulldogs again in the same season in UAPB's only other trip to the SWAC championship, 22-13). This will be the last game at home and of the season, and if the Golden Lions want to rebound from a disastrous 2013 season and send the seniors off right, they need to beat A&M.

                                                      SOUTHERN JAGUARS

The image above was taken after a thrilling, last second one point victory for the UAPB Golden Lions over the Southern University Jaguars in 2011. No, they're not shaking hands but rather viciously beating the hell out of one another. One thing I love about the SWAC is the fact that practically everybody HATES one another, and UAPB/Southern is no exception. The Jaguars would get even against UAPB by squeaking by against them last season, spoiling the Golden Lions homecoming 29-21. Southern is also the SWAC's current defending champions, and if Monte Coleman and his Lions want to get back in the race let alone have a say in the conference showing, winning in Baton Rouge is a must.

                                                                        UCA BEARS

                            HOME MATCHUP THAT INTRIGUES ME: UT-MARTIN 

Last season, UCA travled to Martin, Tennessee to face the Skyhawks. The Bears at the time were ranked #7 in the FCS polls and many felt this would be a relatively easy victory for the Bears. However, the Skyhawks stunned UCA, by blocking the Bears last second field goal attempt to secure the one point victory, 24-23. Though UCA would recover to win the following week against Missouri State, this lost, along with the shellacking Mcneese State put on UCA weeks later-really seemed to deflate and knock the wind out of the 2013 Bears. I expect some added emotions in this year's rematch.

                           AWAY GAME THAT INTRIGUES ME: @ STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

UCA fans considers Mcneese State their top rival (as the name of their match-up has been dubbed the "Rice and Beans Bowl"). However, this match-up may knock that right out of the water. Anytime you go up against your former coach, especially in conference play, their's ALWAYS going to be high emotion and intensity between the sidelines. When longtime coach Clint Conque suddenly departed for SFA, their was an absolute shock wave throughout the UCA community. Come October 4th, both coaches and players can down play this in the media but make no mistake-this is going to be a statement game for both teams. Should be intense.

BONUS PICK: BATTLE OF THE RAVINE (HENDERSTON STATE REDDIES V. OUACHITA BAPTIST TIGERS

 In the little town of Arkadelphia, Arkansas...with a population of just over 10,000 lies one of the most storied and unique rivalries not just in the Natural State, by all of college football. The series, which began play in 1895, is the longest continuous rivalry in division II college football, and slowly but surely as the years have gone by has begun getting more and more regional and national exposure. Last season, ESPN College Gameday sent camera crews out to cover the unique rivalry. The bitter rivals-LITERALLY located on opposites side of the road-shut down Arkadelphia and the town splits 50/50 between Reddies and Tigers faithful. Here's some highlights of last year's barnburner match-up (and no doubt a taste of what surely will come in 2014).