ARKANSAS STATE VS. IDAHO VANDALS-BREAKDOWN


After an emotional lost to their bitter rivals the Cajuns, the Pack had twelve days to get mentally refocused, heal up, and start preparing for their final five games of the 2014 season, which starts in extremely far-off Moscow, Idaho to take on the Vandals. Can the Red Wolves reload and right the ship or will the Vandals be able to further rain on Arkansas State's parade?

OFFENSE: Red Wolves Have the Edge, but Vandals Passing is something to be Wary About

When comparing the two squads on paper, it would seem pretty obvious that the Red Wolves have the more potent of offenses and I agree. Their's no denying that Arkansas State scores and often times have scored in furious fits. They've only been help to under 20 points once this season, and that was against an improving Tennessee team. The Vandals know that their defense hasn't been stopping anybody this season, giving up an average of 469 yards a game; take into account Red Wolves are coming into Moscow averaging 473 total offensive yards along with 31 points a game and it's pretty evident Idaho's trend of giving up chunks of yards and points will probably continue. Their saving grace is in their passing offense, which (believe it or not) is 18th in the nation, averaging over 305 yards a game. They'll definitely try to bomb it away on the Red Wolves in order to keep up, but considering how speedy the secondary is for Arkansas State, Idaho will have to establish a running game in order for the pass to open up. The problem is Idaho is only averaging around 119 yards on the ground; that's barely 30 yards a quarter. So ultimately,while impressive in the passing department, it makes the Vandals very one dimensional on offense; if you want see what happened the last time Arkansas State took on a pass happy, one dimensional conference foe on the road, (that also plays in a dome) check out their Georgia State highlights.

DEFENSE: Despite the Previous outing, Red Wolves Should Still Have the Talent Edge on Vandals.

Simply put, Red Wolves got burned badly by the run against Louisiana Lafayette. Going into that game, Arkansas State was boasting the league's best run defense, barely allowing 115 yards. The Ragin Cajuns steamed rolled and rushed for 419 yards and EIGHT RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS. Now, if Idaho had any semblance of a running game, this might spell trouble for Arkansas State; but they don't. Idaho only has had three games this season where they've rushed for more than 100 yards (and their running average stat bloated up after their victory of NMSU, where they ran for a season high 310 yards). I suspect Idaho will still try to get a run game going against ASU, and wouldn't be shocked if they ran via the Pistol (which was working effectively against the Red Wolves). But this isn't the Cajun O-Line the ASU Defense will be going against, so I'm no too terribly worried they'll be whipped as badly. What does concern me and could be the Vandals saving grace is the turnovers; as spectacular as Fredi has been playing, he has been a turnover machine and the Vandals D has been averaging 2 takeaways a game. If Idaho can match their season average (if not more) they'll make this a game.

MISC: KIBBIE DOME

Moscow, Idaho is located in the northwesterly part of the state. The city (with a population of a little over 23,000) is extremely difficult to travel to, especially if you're a football team. Many teams actually travel to Spokane, Washington, then bus southwards for over an hour and a half until they reach Moscow (which is what Astate is doing). It's an extremely lengthy, mind numbing trip. We haven't given gotten to the venue; the Kibbie Dome.

The Kibbie Dome hosts both the football and basketball teams (along with many other sporting and entertainment events) and has a max capacity of about 16,000.  Despite being only 1-6 on the season, the Vandals are still averaging 14,938 patrons. With such a small, intimate environment, the noise factor will definitely play a role in this game. I would dare to say the Red Wolves haven't faced a loud, hostile environment since the Tennessee game back in September.

PREDICTION: Red Wolves Should Bounce Back

Make no mistake, this is still a trap game for the Pack. South Alabama looms next Saturday in Jonesboro and if the Jaguars can pull off another improbable victory over the Cajuns, it makes the November 8th match-up all the more important. Idaho is hoping Arkansas State not only has that thought in mind, but also is still lingering over the defeat at the hands of the Cajuns. If this game had been played immediately following the lost, I would have feared both would have occurred. However, Arkansas State has had nearly 2 weeks to shake off the Lafayette game. Despite the long travel, they should be WELL RESTED and mended up. Though the game is ultimately played on the field, everything on paper and leading up to this point says Arkansas State is more talented team, with a lot to play for. 

Arkansas State needs to come out swinging right out of the gate, and take Idaho and their fans out of this game early. If their's any sluggish play or turnover/penalty problems, then the Red Wolves could have a fight on their hands. However, this isn't Harsin or his staff; I have full confidence Anderson and Crew will have Arkansas State prepared and wouldn't be surprsised if this turns into another Georgia State game.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Arkansas State and Idaho will have a competitive first quarter, but the explosive play of Fredi Knighten, a trick play followed with a clutch forced turnover and the Red Wolves will sail away from the Vandals by the second quarter and the game. ASTATE 42, Idaho 28