THE ASU BOWL

On what will be an incredibly cold November Saturday, in quite possibly some wintry mix, the Red Wolves of Arkansas State will host the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the first of (probably) many matchups that both fanbases have already dubbed "The ASU Bowl." Seeing how I'm already late on making my preview post and lacking in creativity at the moment, we'll just borrow the nickname! Arkansas State comes into this game winners of five out of their last six contests, outscoring their opponents nearly 100 points. However, App State certainly appears to be hitting their stride, as they are winners of three straight contests, including a thrilling last second field goal to secure their upset over ULM 31-29. Will the suddenly red hot Mountaineers make it four in a row and knock off another long time Sunbelt member, or can the Red Wolves buckle down and ice Appalachian State to make them 7-3 overall? 

Appalachian State At This Point

As previously mentioned, the Mountaineers have been rolling and reeled off three straight victories, including dominant performances over Troy and Georgia State. However, things didn't quite start off well for App State. The much hyped rematch between ASU and Michigan certainly didn't live up to its 2007 contest and the Mountaineers were blown out 52-14. Though they did quickly rebound and thumped the Camels of Campbell, App State would go on to lose four straight including 20+ loses to arch rival Georgia Southern and South Alabama. The biggest dud of the season actually came in a home overtime lost to the Liberty Flames. Sitting at a mere 1-5, many questioned if Appalachian State could really get to three wins. However, they've managed to shape up and cut down on fundamental mistakes and currently sit at 4-5 overall, hoping to continue their winning ways and push their win total to six.

Keys to the Game:

#1. Turnovers

When you look at App State's games so far this season, particularly comparing the stats from the games they've won and games they lost, their's one glaring difference between the two that makes it pretty apparent as to what led to their downfalls in the defeats and certainly helped in the victories:

Turnovers:

Games Mountaineers Lost:

-Michigan: No turnovers

-Southern Miss :3 turnovers

-Georgia Southern: 2 turnovers

-South Alabama: 3 turnovers

-Liberty:  4 turnovers

Games Mountaineers Won:

-Campbell: 1 turnover

-Troy: 1 turnover

-Georgia State:  48 yards, 

-ULM: 1 turnover

As you can see, when App State turns the ball over multiple times, they've lost. When you also consider that Arkansas state has forced 12 turnovers in their last two games, and the Red Wolves currently sit at +/- 6 on their turnover margin this season, if you're a Mountaineer fan you are PRAYING to the football gods that Appalachian State doesn't turn the ball over. Arkansas State has shown when you give them gifts, they will more times than not capitalize. If the Mountaineers want a chance at the upset, they have got to protect the ball at all costs.

Key #2: Quarterback Play

We have two very interesting and more importantly, clutch quarterbacks coming into the "ASU Bowl" and their play will at the least go a long way into determining the victor on Saturday. Freshman Taylor Lamb split time with previous starting QB Kameron Bryant, but by the Southern Miss game was given his first collegiate start. Despite losing a heart breaker to the Golden Eagles by one point, Lamb played a pretty decent game going 28/40 for 264 yards, two touchdowns but threw two picks. The App State coaches have stuck by him so far this season, and his season completion rate sits right at nearly 62% and has thrown 11 total touchdowns. He's also been the teams third leading rusher, carrying the ball 59 times for 376 and accounting for three additional touchdowns. He's had issues with throwing interceptions, with seven thrown so far this season. He's young yet he's shown he indeed has what it takes to be a dual threat, very capable quarterback.

On the flip side we have Fredi Knighten,who after having a part time role for ASU has exploded in his first true season as a starting quarterback. In just two seasons, he has ran for nearly 900 yards, thrown for 2,280 and has accounted for 27 total touchdowns. As every game has gone on this season, he's truly been improving, particularly in his deep, down-field passing. 

Both ASUs are going to need their quarterbacks to make plays and though Lamb certainly has shown flashes of big play capability, I just feel Knighten is a little bit more fined tuned.

WildCard: Weather

As of this blog, the only certain aspect of the weather Saturday is the temperature: COLD, COLD, COLD. Throughout the week, their have been several different "weather models" that range from cold rain to wintry mix, as well as giving the winter weather chance from 0% chance to 66%, depending on if you prefer Weather Channel or Accuweather. The Mountaineers faithful certainly seem confident the cold weather will not negatively effect their beloved squad, some even thinking it'll give them the winning edge. While I certainly think many of the Red Wolves players are quite accustomed to playing in the cold, if their is some type of wintry weather during the game, you would have to think it may play a huge factor, especially in the play calling and turnover battle (not to mention the crowd at Centennial Bank Stadium).

PREDICTION:

Despite extremely crappy, cold and possibly wet conditions, Red Wolves will howl to seven victories in a surprisingly low scoring, field position battle.

Even if their actually is no precipitation whatsoever, both teams want this badly (duh)-but will be wary of the others potent offense. After a sudden yet fantastic performance at absolutely shutting down the Jaguars attack (especially their running game) the Red Wolves defense is back after a waning performance from the the La-La and Idaho games. Both defenses will be gunning for the quarterbacks in order to get them uncomfortable and out of sync, but Arkansas State will rattle Lamb a little bit more due to his youth. I wouldn't be shocked if the game is tied or it's a one posession lead for either team going into the 4th, but with dynamic play-maker JD Mckissic back, Red Wolves will make the clutch and timely plays and pull away in the 4th from a fiesty Appalachian State squad

SCORE PREDICTION: Astate 28, App State 17

Red Wolves Obliterate Wounded Jaguars

What Happened:

This picture perfectly sums up the day in Jonesboro, Arkansas; it never was a game really...it was a shellacking.

The Red Wolves of Arkansas State completely  annihilated the South Alabama Jaguars to improve to 6-3 on the season, making the squad bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season. For the most part the Red Wolves absolutely imposed their will on the Jaguars and USA just seemed to be overwhelmed quickly and just couldn't get anything going. Still, the ASU offense didn't quite play a solid game, stalling once again on a 4th and short on the USA 5-yard line, Ferguson missing a 33 yard field goal try and adding an additional eight penalties for 77 yards to their already ridiculously HIGH penalty count (many primarily came from the defensive side of the ball). Despite the hiccups, ASU handed South Alabama their worst program lost in their brief history, not to mention scoring 45 points on defense that had only allowed an average of 20 points going into yesterday's game, and that's something not to be taken lightly.  Perhaps the two biggest story lines that came out of this game were the South Al injuries and the Red Wolves defense; after allowing over 600 yards rushing in their last two games with 12 touchdowns,  the Arkansas State D only allowed 111 on the ground (majority of those yards coming against the scrubs in the 4th) and zero rushing scores. Defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen certainly tweaked the defense and despite stud defender Rocky Hayes getting ejected early in the first quarter for targeting, the defense remained absolutely stout, only allowing the Jaguars to gain 42 yards at half with three points (ending result being 201 yards and 10 points), giving up only ONE THIRD DOWN CONVERSION out of 12 attempts, and forcing four turnovers on the day.

Going into Saturday, I thought this would be the Packs toughest remaining opponent, and a part of me thinks it still would've been...if USA weren't so banged up. It was no secret the Jaguars were hurting throughout the roster, and ultimately eight starters ended up not playing for South Al (including starting quarterback Brandon Bridge). On top of that, junior Marvin Shinn suffered a horrific broken leg early in the first quarter, and it's been reported he stayed behind in Jonesboro to have surgery on his leg today prior to being transported back to Mobile. It was very obvious once the game started and progressed that USA's talent and depth really drops off and were no match for the ASU first string.

Player of the Game: Fredi Knighten 

"Lightnin" Fredi Knighten was once again spot on for his Red Wolves, going 17/32 passing for 187 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. On top of that, he ran for an additional 80 yards with one TD. As this season has progressed, Knighten has certainly been maturing as a quarterback and he certainly doesn't appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

My Thoughts/Looking Ahead:

"I honestly did not see 45-10 coming...(I) felt really comfortable that this was going to be a slugfest to the end," Blake Anderson said during his post game presser. I am right there with him; Despite the long injury list, I still thought this Jaguar squad had enough talent, particularly on the defensive side, to keep it a close game with the Pack. On top of that, with bowl eligibility on the line would've added a little bit more of a motivational boost for USA. However, such wasn't the case and the Red Wolves took fully advantage of a very depleted South Al squad. All in all, Astate played a very solid game and if they keep up this level of play I have no doubt the ASU team can roll to a 9-3 regular season record.

With that said, gotta stay focus and play one game at a time. Their's still three games remaining and the next one up won't come easy. The Mountaineers of App State, after losing their first five of six games, have appeared to have gotten their act together with extremely young group of players and won three straight. They remind me of Idaho-very capable offense (including the 21st rushing team in the nation) and yet having a shaky defense (giving up about 28 points a game). ASU can't be over looking them for their Thursday night ESPNU date against Texas State; if the Mountaineers can get their running game going against ASU, they can easily keep up scoring wise with the Red Wolves. Running defense will have to once again step up for the Pack to score win number seven.

Red Wolves vs Jagaurs: A Fight for the Right to Bowl

Two teams...both have had their high moments as well as their lows....quite a few injuries for both teams, yet the two football squads both have high aspirations for the '14 season. One of them has a good chance to achieve their goal, but it'll come at the expense of the other. Who will fill that role? Let's find out!

SOUTH AL: THEIR 2014 SEASON SO FAR...

Many had tabulate the Jaguars of South Alabama to be a "dark horse" for the Sunbelt crown going into the '14 season, though they didn't begin with a hot start. Following their season opening victory on the road against Kent State, USA would be held to zero touchdowns for the next two games against Mississippi State and Georgia Southern (only scoring a combined nine points from field goals). Granted, the Bulldogs and Eagles are playing phenomenal football though Jaguar fans couldn't help but feel disappointed by the lack of execution and competitiveness, especially since both games were in Mobile. 

However, South Al would be able to turn things around and win their next four contests winning at Idaho, at Appalachian State, followed by back to back home victories over Georgia State and in-state rival Troy. After only averaging barely 11 points a game in September it seemed the offense had righted the sinking ship and improved their scoring average to nearly 35 in the month of October...

...then last Saturday on the road in Lafayette, South Al's offense was virtually non-existent; they scored 9 points the entire game (missed a PAT after their second quarter TD). Though USA was neck in neck with the Cajuns, their offense sputtered and misfired for majority of the game and if it weren't for the Jaguar defense playing their hearts out, Lafayette could've made it an ugly game. However, the Jaguars lost in Cajunland 19-9, and ended their winning streak. They now travel to Jonesboro with a 5-3 record overall, 4-2 in SBC play.

KEY POINTS/STATS FOR THE GAME:

ASU's Running D (or Lack Of)

In case you missed this little tib-bit from my review of ASU's iffy victory over the Vandals, let me reiterate this stat: in their last TWO GAMES, the Red Wolves defense has surrendered over 660 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns....and that's not a misprint. South Al's best chance at scoring their first victory over Arkansas State is to establish and cram the run DOWN ASU's throat, over and over again. It worked fabulously for Lafayette, and had Idaho found a way to somehow not lose the ball eight times, probably would've scored the upset over the Pack...which leads me to my next key....

Turnover Battle

The reason why ASU is 5-3 and not 4-4 is because of eight Vandals turnovers-four from the air and four from the ground. You can run and pass to your delight but if you cough the ball up THAT many times, you're almost certain to lose. Red Wolves took advantage of nearly every takeaway and ended up securing a 16 point victory. The Jaguars have been pretty good by not having a whole lot of turnovers (their worst being four against the now number one team in the country, Mississippi State). In fact, up until their heartbreaking fumble on the Cajuns 4 yard line last week, USA hadn't had a single turnover since their September 27th trip to the Kibbie Dome. As obvious as this will sound, it will certainly never ring truer than in this game: whoever limits their mistakes and capitalizes on the gifts will most certainly win, which brings me to key #3...

Penalties...Good God.

Their's NO WAY to sugar coat this, so I'll be blunt: both teams have been GOD AWFUL when it comes to penalties. ASU has had 64 penalties for 546 yards, while the Jaguars have totaled 57 for 517. Combined, that's 121 penalties for 1063 yards (that's over half of a mile worth of penalties!!). It may or may not be THE deciding facor in this game, but you'd have to think whoever can play a cleaner game will have the better opportunity at victory.

Kickers

I absolutely think this will be a tough, back and forth affair and it could possibly come  down to field position, which you know that means: kicking game. If you read my previous post, you know my disdain for ASU kicker Luke Ferguson's inconsistent kicking throughout the season. In terms of percentage, Ferguson has only made 58% of his field goal attempts this year (most coming from 20-29 yards out) and has missed five PATs already this year. On the flip side for South Alabama, they've employed two kickers for their field goals and XPTs-Aleem Sunannon and Grant McLaurin. While both haven't had overly impressive numbers, combined they've only missed three extra points and three field goal attempts. Now Luke does have a little bit stronger of a leg when it comes to punting and kickoffs, (I won't bother throwing additional numbers but if you don't take my word you can compare Luke's kicking stats Here and USA's here) but at the end of the day points matter more than net yards.

Prediction: Red Wolves once again squeak by last second against the Jags

The South Alabama Jaguars can win this Saturday. And if Arkansas State once again starts to sputter on offense as well as can't tackle or stop the USA running game, they could win in the double digits. They boast a very balanced offensive attack, averaging 204 passing yards and 194 yards rushing a game. On top of that, their defense has played stout for most of the season, only allowing 20 points a game. However, when you consider that AL.com reported today that the Jaguars have a lot of key players that are either questionable, game time decisions or even out (including starting QB Brandon Bridge and stud LB Maleki Harris), and then throw on top of that having to travel to Arkansas State, where they've only lost three Sunbelt Conference games at home since the 2010 season, I think Red Wolves have a the slight edge, even if Bridge ends up playing for South Alabama. The Red Wolves DO NOT want this turning into a defensive game or a battle of the field goal game-both will end up favoring South Alabama.

This will be a very close affair; USA will once again pound away at the ASU defense, and though they will give up chunks of yards on the ground, I think ASU defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen will be able to adjust and at least keep the Jags from running up and down the field. USA will still be able to move the ball and score, but so will Arkansas State. Their will be penalties and their will be turnovers; once again, I think they'll be an extremely key and costly turnover for the opposing Jaguars and the Red Wolves will capitalize on it and will pull out a hard fought affair from both squads.

Arkansas State-34

South Alabama-28

Scrappy Vandals Makes It Interesting, Opportunistic Red Wolves Seize the 'W'

In my previous prediction blog, I predicted the Red Wolves would get the victory, with a score of 42-28. While I was nearly spot on score wise (44-28) the way that I predicted the result would come about was WWWAAAYYY off. Lets not waste any more time, we'll jump right into the review and my grades for Astate's three phases of the game.

DEFENSE: B-

Where to  begin? Well lets get the bad out of the way; three weeks ago, the Cajuns completely exposed the weakness of the Red Wolves defense...the run D. Which in a way was rather bizarre because it had been so stout prior to that game. But Lafayette kept running it straight up the middle and found the holes and gashed the Astate Defense all night. Despite only averaging 119 yards on the ground, Idaho took what they saw from the Cajuns game and completely exploited it. The Vandals kept hammering at the Red Wolves and soon enough it started paying off for them, and paying big time. Idaho ended up with nearly 245 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs. The rushing game was working so well for Idaho, that they actually  threw for least amount of passing yards all season (206 yards). You're probably wondering "Jake, hearing a lot of negative here...why do you still give the defense a 'B-' for a grade?

Yes that's right...Idaho fumbled within literally inches from scoring and tying the game, and Rocky took it 93 yards for a touchdown. Though Idaho would answer back with another long, methodical drive, that wouldn't be the only turnover Astate would force that night. In fact, the Red Wolves would end up with EIGHT TAKEAWAYS...which resulted in 35 of Arkansas State's 44 points. Without those fumbles and interceptions, this game would've been a lost for ASU. So yes, the run defense got burned but the D made up for the chunks of yards given up on the ground with a boat load of turnovers and hence that's why I give them the B-.

OFFENSE: C+

First off, before I continue, hats off to Flash Gordon-the man is a beast and ASU is extremely lucky to have ended up with him in a Red Wolves uni...that young man could easily be starting for just about any squad in the county. Gordon ended up with 17 carries for 105 yards and 5 touchdowns. With that said...

The offense really reverted back to it's early season form, with inconsistent play. First quarter, the Pack was seemingly able to move the ball with relative ease, despite only a touchdown to show for it; Second quarter, they had 17 plays 54 yards and only a field goal. Third quarter, back to back three and outs, but when Idaho muffed the punt and ASU recovered, it seemingly ignited a fire and Astate was able to score on back to back possessions to end the that quarter. And finally in the 4th quarter, the 'Pack were able to score another 14 points (could've been 17 but Luke Furgeson missed a 40 yard field goal attempt) and force three turnovers along with a Idaho turn over on downs to secure the victory.

One thing is certain...when JD Mckissic is not 100% or even on the field, it definitely effects the play of this team. Though JD only played limited amount before being held out the remainder of the game, his one reception for 30 yards not only helped sustain a much needed Astate drive, but secured a field goal kick that gave ASU the halftime lead at that point, 17-14.

Ultimately, I gave them a C+ because while we still were able to 13 more points above their scoring average (31) and take full advantage of Vandal mistakes, the moments of inconsistency along with the penalty bug coming back in a large fashion and has me a little concerned that mistakes that seemingly looked corrected (Even in the UL lost) has crept back.

SPECIAL TEAMS: C

I put this highlight here not because it was clutch or even fantastic, but to make a point; how in the fudge can you make a 28 yard attempt...pretty much straight up the middle (you can say a tad to the left) but NOT MAKE A EXTRA POINT STRAIGHT UP THE MIDDLE?? Despite being inside a dome where their isn't any wind, I can let the 40 yarder he missed slide, but Ferguson's constant mental lapses in the kicking game is frustrating; so far he's been 7/12 on field goals and has already missed 4 PATs.  At some point, his kick disparities are going to bite his team on the rear end. 

In fact, this grade is not lower simply by the fact of the punt coverage team getting a fumble recovery which set up a MUCH needed score in the 3rd quarter. 

FINAL THOUGHTS/LOOKING AHEAD

Was it a Georgia State-esque victory like I had predicted in my previous post? Nope. I tip my hats off to the Vandals; they certainly had a game-plan that once it got rolling really had the Red Wolves on the ropes for 2 quarters. However, the unbelievable amount of turnovers Idaho had simply was too much for them (heck, any team) to overcome.

If ASU wants to win out and get to 9 regular season wins, they better find a patch or better yet, find a way to fix this "lack" of a run defense and FAST. In their last two games, the Pack has now given up over 660  yards on the ground for 12 TOUCHDOWNS...12. Despite only rushing for 60 yards in their lost to the Cajuns, South Alabama still boasts an impressive rushing attack, averaging over 190 yards a game. The Jaguars have won four out of their last five contests on the gridiron and you can bet they're going pound the ball right at the Arkansas State D.