Can the 'Belt Fill It's Five Guaranteed Bowl Sports in 2016?

When the Sun Belt Conference first formed as a football sponsoring league in 2001, it was compromised of mostly then Division I-AA transfers and former Big West Members needing a new football home. As a newly formed Division I football conference, the 'Belt had no guaranteed bowl tie ins whatsoever. Former commissioner Wright Waters was able to strike a deal with the Greater New Orleans Sports Foundation to help establish and sponsor a bowl game that would host the SBC champion (the New Orleans Bowl).

For nearly 10 years, the New Orleans Bowl was the only bowl tie in the SBC had; finally in 2010, the Sun Belt was able to strike a deal with the GMAC Bowl to become the second exclusive tie in for the 'Belt.

Fast forward another five years later and the Sun Belt Conference will be entering the 2016 season with five guaranteed bowl tie ins for its 11 members; considering the lowly beginnings and rocky transitioning the conference faced throughout the years, this feat is quite incredible. The question though is can the SBC actually fill it's five bowl slots?

First, lets take a look at how many teams became bowl eligible throughout the seasons...

2003-1
2004-1
2005-2
2006-4
2007-3
2008-4
2009-4
2010-3
2011-4
2012-5
2013-7
2014-*6 (Ga. Southern & App State were still in transitioning period and were not allowed to go bowling unless bowl slots couldn't be filled with contractual tie ins)
2015-4


So, for the last thirteen seasons, the Sun Belt has, on average, had around 4 teams eligible for bowl games; a trend you noticed has been for the most part the league has been able to increase its numbers of bowl eligible teams as the seasons have gone on, which definitely bodes well when it comes to fulfilling its bowl slots. To give the league credit, it certainly took its time and waited for the seemingly right times to negotiate adding more guaranteed games beginning in the '10s (where so far the conference hasn't fell below less than three eligible teams and hasn't done so since 2005).

Next, we obviously have to take the entire SBC's members schedules into consideration (courtesy of FBS Schedules).

Just glancing at the Belters schedules (particularly the OOC slates) and I see quite a bit of teams that, at best, have a shot at going 2-2; App, Georgia Southern, Idaho, Texas State and ULM have pretty brutal non-conference match ups. With only one "money game", two G5 opponents and an FCS, Arkansas State to me has a really solid chance at going 3-1 early on (however on the flip side have to travel on the road four out of the last five games of the season). Troy, Lafayette and Georgia State also has favorable non conference games and it could come down to how well or poor those three do that will decide whether league fulfills or falls short of sending teams to its contractual bowls.

Looking at what some of the national pundits predict,  Collegefootballnews.com thinks Five teams will be bowl eligible, whereas Athlon has even higher expectations projecting six teams eligible.  Underdog's mother site SBNation.com has a little bit lower expectations for the league as a whole.




All in all, I think the league securing itself five bowl games was a positive move for the Belt; getting itself up with comparable numbers with its fellow mid major conferences bowl tie ins definitely will help with outside perception, however i'm not entirely sold on whether SBC can fulfill its allotment. The key is going to be how well the Belters perform in their non conference games and keep in mind last season, the Sun Belt was dead last among the Group of 5 in terms of Out of Conference wins (only racking up 16 and losing over 30).