2015 SBC Preview #10: Georgia State

My oh my...The Panthers Football program may still be struggling to find any semblance of success, but you certainly have to say their current moniker is much more improved than their original logo (if you can't tell which is which then you obviously fail at life).

But logos certainly don't win football games, and neither does the Georgia State Panthers. Since their inception in 2010, GSU hasn't won more games than six (as an FCS Independent) and haven't won more than two games since 2012. In fact, they've yet to win a SINGLE SBC conference game. When you start a football program from scratch (and when you also consider how relatively fast GSU moved up among the ranks in collegiate football) you would certainly expect some growing pains. However, last season was supposed to the year of vast improvement for the Panthers; returning young talent with a year of experience under their belts (including outstanding QB Nick Arbuckle...who's also coming back), Panther faithful were hoping to not only break the losing streak, but to see some substantial improvement. Perhaps having to rally in the 4th quarter down nearly three possessions to beat Abilene Christian by one at home should've been a sign. It was very obvious by late October, early November this Georgia State squad had virtually given up on the season, losing their last five games of the season by an average of nearly 32 points a game.

Now going into 2015 and Georgia State appears to be right where they were last year; a lot of raw, young yet talented players returning (in fact they're 10th in the country in terms of returning players) but still branded with a murky, uneasy outlook on the '15 season.

Also returning is bewildered coach Trent Miles.

Miles, who had turned around a very bad Indiana State program into consistent competitors prior to becoming GSU's head man, has struggled mightily in Atlanta. Granted, the argument can be made that turning perennial losers into winners at the FCS level compared to the FBS level is a night and day situations. But in this day of college football, job security is constantly fluctuating, and losing streaks don't help. For Miles, you would have to think (for GSU fans hope) that he and his staff are in desperation mode to show any sign of life.

SCHEDULE:

Friday Sept. 4		Charlotte 49ers Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 12		at New Mexico State Aggies  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 19		at Oregon Ducks Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR	TBA	Buy Tickets
Saturday Sep. 26	---	Open Date	---	---
Saturday Oct. 3		Liberty Flames (HC) Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 10		Appalachian State Mountaineers Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 17		at Ball State Cardinals  Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 24	---	Open Date	---	---
Saturday Oct. 31		at Arkansas State Red Wolves Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 7		Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns  Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 14		at Texas State Bobcats  Bobcat Stadium, San Marcos, TX	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 21		South Alabama Jaguars Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Friday Nov. 27		Troy Trojans  Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA	TBA	---
Saturday Dec. 5		at Georgia Southern Eagles Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, GA

Taking the trip to the Autzen zoo out of the equation, this is a pretty sweet schedule. Getting CUSA newcomer Charlotte to start the season will definitely be a measuring stick to show whether the Panthers have improved any during the offseason and fall camp; Liberty shouldn't be taken lightly (ask App State), and traveling up to Muncie to take on Ball State will once again be another measuring stick game, this time to test their mid season form. SBC wise it's not a bad draw, with perhaps the toughest road trips being to Jonesboro and bitter instate rivals, Georgia Southern. Make no mistake for a still growing program like Georgia State, this could turn into a daunting schedule, but you would have to think being in their home state four out of their last five games, along with TWO BYES should prove to be positive aspects.

Nick Arbuckle was the shining star of an otherwise dull 2014 season; the junior transfer from California threw for over 3,000 yards and accumulated 23 touchdowns. You can bet that for the Panthers to have a relative successful '15 season, Arbuckle is going to have to continue to play lights out (also limiting his interceptions would probably help as well). But it's going to take an entire team effort; many times it felt that the young QB was trying to do it all by himself with almost little no help around him.

OUTLOOK:

Here's my problem; like I mentioned earlier, I'm having deja'vu. The Panthers had quite a bit returning back with the expectations of making some impact in conference play; Same outlook leading into 2012 and 2013 seasons... we all know how that turned out. And, just when you think the Panthers can't get any lower, they some how find a way to dig the losing hole deeper. The schedule is set up rather nicely...if you're any other SBC team. I can't help but feel the talent pool is still needing time to really develop and I'm just not sure if Miles is the guy to get the Georgia State program to the next level. 

DREAM SEASON: Panthers win 2 out of 4 OOC games, and are able to score their first win(s) in Sunbelt Conference play.

NIGHTMARE SEASON: Panthers go 0-12 and Trent Miles is looking for an assistant coaching job.

SBC 2015 Preview: #11 Idaho Vandals

Despite Joe Vandal doing his best to keep hopes up among the Vandal nation, it has been a rough going for the Idaho football program for the last 10 plus years. It's been five years now since their last bowl game (the 2009 last second victory in the Humanitarian Bowl against the Bowling Green State Falcons) and to add onto the misery Idaho has only had one other season since 2002 where they won at least 6 games. They were in the Sunbelt from 2002-2004, left for the WAC and remained there for 2005-2012, but the WAC soon disbanded their football and the SBC threw a lifeline to both Idaho and New Mexico State and both programs just finished their first full season of SBC competition in '14. Though by no means the perfect situation, both Vandals administration as well the fans saw it as a temporary fix, hoping to start accumulate wins and bide their time hoping for a better draw of the cards.

Unfortunately, the wins didn't come last season. In fact, their lone victory came against their equally down-trodden buddies NMSU, 29-17. The Vandals would lose the remainder of their games by an average score of nearly 15 points per game.

When Paul Petrino came aboard as the head man at Idaho in December of 2012, many Idaho fans saw it as a potential godsend, and when you glance at his resume', could you blame them for thinking there was potential? From 1990 all the way to 2012, Petrino coached as an offensive coordinator, running backs, quarter backs, and special teams (often times taking multiple duties) from Idaho to Southern Miss, the Atlanta Falcons, Illinois and Arkansas to name a few notables. Though many figured it would be a tough rebuilding job in Moscow, I would be willing to bet many wouldn't have thought in two seasons he would have just two victories under his belt. Despite a coaching record of 2-21, Petrino has improved the team's offensive production in his two seasons at the helm, (averaging only 18 points in 2013 to improving the team's scoring average to 25 in 2014). Still, when your defense has given up an average of 68 points in two seasons, you know their still is A LOT of work that needs to be done.

The Schedule:

Thurs. Sept. 3		Ohio Bobcats Kibbie Dome, Moscow, ID	TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 12		at USC Trojans  L.A. Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA	TBA	Buy Tickets
Saturday Sep. 19		Wofford Terriers Kibbie Dome, Moscow, ID	2:00 p.m. PT TV TBA	---
Saturday Sep. 26		Georgia Southern Eagles Kibbie Dome, Moscow, ID	2:00 p.m. PT TV TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 3		at Arkansas State Red Wolves Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 10	---	Open Date	---	---
Saturday Oct. 17		at Troy Trojans  Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL	TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 24		ULM Warhawks  Kibbie Dome, Moscow, ID	2:00 p.m. PT TV TBA	---
Saturday Oct. 31		at New Mexico State Aggies  Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 7		at South Alabama Jaguars Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 14		Appalachian State Mountaineers Kibbie Dome, Moscow, ID	TBA	---
Saturday Nov. 21		at Auburn Tigers  Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL	TBA	Buy Tickets
Saturday Nov. 28		Texas State Bobcats  Kibbie Dome, Moscow, ID

Though not the worst gauntlet of a schedule I've seen, for Idaho this is going to be another challenging slate. Truth be told, I'm not sure where the wins will come from; even the Wofford game at home isn't a sure fire gimme. You can bet their remaining four home games they will be underdogs in every one of those. Getting a BYE between road trips to Jonesboro and Troy could prove to be a saving grace of sorts, but after that October 10th off it'll be gameday every Saturday for that remaining 7 straight weeks.

Though it's been a rough start for Coach Petrino (and a REALLY rough patch for Idaho fans in general), the Vandals do have a few weapons in their arsenal; starting as a true freshman at the QB position last season, young Matt Linehan threw for over 2500 yards, helping the team to be the 31st best passing squad in the country. But the Vandals lose their stud WR Josh McCain to graduation, so it falls onto an underclassman WR to step and become Linehan's go to target. The running game was virtually nonexistant until almost mid way through the season, thanks to the sudden emergence of soon to be senior RB Elijah Penny. Both Linehan, Penny as well the ENTIRE defensive squad must step their level of play up to help the Vandals get over the one win hump.

Unfortunately, I just don't think their's enough talent among the roster to even get Idaho within a shot of bowl eligibility. If the Vandals got to two wins on this schedule I'd be impressed. I just don't see them knocking off a solid Ohio squad (Even at home), all of their SBC opponents look to be vastly more talented and better coached teams (yes I think NMSU will be greatly improved and more mature from their '14 inexperienced counterparts). 

DREAM SEASON: Vandals get to three wins. This would nearly double their victories from the last two seasons, getting wins over Wofford, New Mexico State and shocking one of their SBC brethren inside the Kibbie Dome.

NIGHTMARE Season: One win or less. If this were to occur I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Petrino get the boot.

2014 Arkansas State Year in Review and Outlook

ARKANSAS STATE 2014 YEAR IN REVIEW & OUTLOOK:

     For the first since 2010, a head coach for the football program at Arkansas State is returning for a second season. In that nearly five year span, this program (who after the '10 season only had two seasons with six wins, a shared conference title and one FBS bowl appearance) went on to win 35 games, two outright conference titles and 4 straight bowl appearances (with a 2-2 record). That alone is a helluva accomplish, but when you remind yourself all that came with constant coaching changes season after season is truly remarkable. Despite having the lowest win total in three seasons (seven) and losing the Godaddy bowl by nearly three touchdowns, the fact that head man Blake Anderson is back with his entire coaching staff (yes even Trooper Taylor) is a fantastic achievement for this Red Wolves program that has been longing for some sort of personnel stability.

    All in all, this was a somewhat let down of a season; Injuries certainly played a very negative role, with 11+ freshman at one point having to play late into the year, but most knew that sooner or later that despite the incredible accomplishments achieved with so many coaching changes, a set back would finally catch up to the team, and it did in the '14 season. However, their were still fantastic moments and wins to go along with some tough and rather embarrassing moments. Let's dive into what was the 2014 season and we'll preview what's to come in '15.

Best Win: Utah State

To begin, let me first off point out that the Sunbelt was simply TERRIBLE in out of conference play in '14; the league combined went 11-29 in the regular season (losses coming from the likes of Abilene Christian over Troy and Liberty over Appalachian State). In fact, the Red Wolves gritty, come from behind overtime victory over the Aggies along with Texas State's overtime victory at Tulsa were the only FBS victories for the SBC. Despite the Aggies losing stud QB Chuckie Keeton early, Utah State were contending for the Mountain West all season and won 8 of their last 10 games after their defeat in Jonesboro. Though the offense struggled mightily for majority of the game along with ASU turning the ball over four times, the defense kept Astate in the game and an impromptu field goal block at the end of regulation gave the Red Wolves the momentum swing they needed to steal one in overtime against Utah State. The win gave the Red Wolves just their third regular season victory over an OOC opponent in four seasons (the other two coming from Memphis twice).

Worst Loss: Appalachian State

     Quite honestly in my opinion, any of ASU's six losses of the 2014 season could've arguably made my pick for worst lost of the '14 season; the lack of execution in the Miami and Texas State blow out losses was certainly frustrating, the highly questionable coaching decisions in the shoot out defeat against the Cajuns certainly came close, but without a doubt the one that just truly had me angry and shaking my head was the shocking defeat at the hands of the young bloods, Appalachian State. Despite the final score, this game was a one sided affair; Red Wolves couldn't stop the Mountaineers stud RB Marcus Cox, who shredded Astate for nearly 230 yards on the ground and two TDs. App State was playing true freshman Taylor Lamb, who had a breakout game against AState (14/22 for 255 yards and an additional two touchdowns). Late into the game, the Mountaineers were comfortably in the lead 37-20; the Red Wolves at that point in the game had only mustered 251 total offensive yards and barely held onto the ball for just over 17 minutes. Then in a span of literally 2-3 minutes, forced a turnover, scored, recovered an onside kick, scored, nearly recovered another onside kick, got the ball back with a chance to win and came up short by five.

...It was without a doubt the most excruciatingly aggravating games I've seen this squad play since the '13 Memphis game. Blame it on what you will (oversight, lack of focus or injuries) it truly derailed what already little chance ASU had to repeat as conference champions.

                                                       Player of the Year: Fredi Knighten

     Quite honestly, who else could it have been for Arkansas State? Despite 2014 being his first full season as the starting quarterback, the Pulaski Academy star was a three time, SBC offensive player of the week and was named to the first team, all Sunbelt Quarterback. He accounted for 3,469 yards in the regular season, fourth most in the SBC history. The offense truly worked around him; whenever he was on fire, so was the 'O'-when he struggled, likewise for the offensive unit. He still had a few too many turnovers in '14 (particularly the problem of raring back to throw and suddenly losing his handle on the ball), but if he can tweak and improve in the offseason, no doubt his final year at Arkansas State could be one for the record books.

Grade for Anderson's first Season: B-

     While Anderson certainly didn't hit a home run and win the conference title like his previous three predecessors, the head honcho certainly showed swagger; always upbeat and confident, even during the back to back losses to Appalachian State and Texas State. Generally speaking, anytime you have a first year head coach end up with both an overall and conference winning record and having your squad earn a bowl game, it's a no doubt solid first go around. As mentioned, the losses to the Mountaineers at home, the shellacking the squad took from both Texas State and Toledo and the failed fake punt that basically cost them the game against the Cajuns did hinder on his final grade,  the recruiting class he and his coaching staff brought in (many sites ranking them top of the class in conference) was absolutely phenomenal and at this point the sky is the limit for B.A. 

BONUS: Best Social Media Moment-'The Fainting Goat'

     How could I recall the 2014 season and NOT mention this play?? What was intended to prevent a penalty being called on Booker Mays (and perhaps throw some of the Miami players off guard...which spoiler alert!!! IT DID NOT) threw the Red Wolves into the national and media spotlight for weeks. While an argument could certainly be made that it's not the type of recognition you want, Blake and his team played it off well and like the old saying goes "exposure is exposure." 

Expectations For 2015 Season

     Once upon a time, many Indians/Red Wolves faithful could only dream of their team ever being successful. But as Terry Mohajir has stated, "This isn't the sleepy little program in northeast Arkansas anymore." Indeed ASU has come a LONG ways from the dark days of the 90s and early 2000s, and along with a the wonderful new Video board comes the much needed pressbox renovation and indoor practice facility that truly reflects the mass success and emphasis football has become at Arkansas State. With lofty achievements however comes even higher expectations and though Blake and crew still had a decent showing in 2014, it was still a step back from the previous three season. Red Wolves will certainly be expecting more than just another seven wins and a Godaddy appearance-no doubt for many if not most it'll be the SBC crown or bust for 15. The conference slate, while initially appearing daunting, certainly is manageable:

Conference Schedule:

Sat. October 3-Idaho (Homecoming)

Tues. October 13-@South Alabama (ESPN2)

Tues. October 20-Louisiana Lafayette (ESPN2)

Sat. October 31-Georgia State

Thurs. November 5-@App State (ESPNU)

Sat. November 14-@ULM

Sat. November 28-@NMSU

Sat. December 5-Texas State (Senior Day)

Now the first aspect that stands out is the three game road stretch in November-it's certainly going to be doozy of a challenge. The short turn around from the Georgia State game to traveling to Boone for the Thursday Night ESPNU showdown with  the Mountaineers could easily be the make or break stretch for the success of 2015. However, their's a nine day lapse between the App state game and traveling to Monroe then another two weeks before they travel to Las Cruces to take on the Aggies. If the injury bug were to bite during that stretch, you'd think their be enough days to let the players heal and rest up. 

The other two bowling SBC teams of 2014 (La La and USA) will be back to back national tv games. The Jags lost quite a bit on offense and despite it being on the road, Mobile really has become a "home away from home" for ASU. On the flip side, the Cajuns lose EVERYBODY and it 2015 maybe a rebuilding year for Louisiana Lafayette. Though the Cajuns have won the last two against the Red Wolves, after the near brawl the erupted last season against the two squads, no doubt Lafayette will be getting the full focus and attention of Arkansas State personnel.

As of now, with the talent coming back as well as returning the coaching staff, I think six conference wins is certainly doable. But their's one other aspect of the schedule we haven't discussed yet and that's the nonconference slate...

And boy is it a brutal OOC slate...

Sat. September 5-@USC

Sat. September 12-Missouri

Sat. September 19-Missouri State

Sat. September 26-@Toledo

The trip to the Coliseum could quickly turn into a brutal game. The Trojans ended the 2014 season with a 9-4 mark, capped off by a nice victory over the Cornhuskers. While the home game against the Mizzo Tigers will be a historic night in Jonesboro, least we forget that Missouri has won the SEC East Championship back to back years and has won at least 8 or more games five out of their last six seasons. The Bears have been a solid FCS program (and a potential SBC expansion candidate) and any Red Wolves fan is more than aware how explosive and dynamic the Toldeo Rockets can be. Furthermore the Rockets have been outstanding at home, going 22-6 the last five seasons. 

Quite honestly, if ASU could somehow go 2-2 in the month of September, it would be a huge achievement. 

Obviously a lot will change between now and September, but for my WAAAAAAAAY too early prediction, I'm thinking 8-5 regular season with a bowl bid somewhere BESIDES Mobile would be a good goal to aim for in 2015.