ARKANSAS STATE VS. IDAHO VANDALS-BREAKDOWN


After an emotional lost to their bitter rivals the Cajuns, the Pack had twelve days to get mentally refocused, heal up, and start preparing for their final five games of the 2014 season, which starts in extremely far-off Moscow, Idaho to take on the Vandals. Can the Red Wolves reload and right the ship or will the Vandals be able to further rain on Arkansas State's parade?

OFFENSE: Red Wolves Have the Edge, but Vandals Passing is something to be Wary About

When comparing the two squads on paper, it would seem pretty obvious that the Red Wolves have the more potent of offenses and I agree. Their's no denying that Arkansas State scores and often times have scored in furious fits. They've only been help to under 20 points once this season, and that was against an improving Tennessee team. The Vandals know that their defense hasn't been stopping anybody this season, giving up an average of 469 yards a game; take into account Red Wolves are coming into Moscow averaging 473 total offensive yards along with 31 points a game and it's pretty evident Idaho's trend of giving up chunks of yards and points will probably continue. Their saving grace is in their passing offense, which (believe it or not) is 18th in the nation, averaging over 305 yards a game. They'll definitely try to bomb it away on the Red Wolves in order to keep up, but considering how speedy the secondary is for Arkansas State, Idaho will have to establish a running game in order for the pass to open up. The problem is Idaho is only averaging around 119 yards on the ground; that's barely 30 yards a quarter. So ultimately,while impressive in the passing department, it makes the Vandals very one dimensional on offense; if you want see what happened the last time Arkansas State took on a pass happy, one dimensional conference foe on the road, (that also plays in a dome) check out their Georgia State highlights.

DEFENSE: Despite the Previous outing, Red Wolves Should Still Have the Talent Edge on Vandals.

Simply put, Red Wolves got burned badly by the run against Louisiana Lafayette. Going into that game, Arkansas State was boasting the league's best run defense, barely allowing 115 yards. The Ragin Cajuns steamed rolled and rushed for 419 yards and EIGHT RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS. Now, if Idaho had any semblance of a running game, this might spell trouble for Arkansas State; but they don't. Idaho only has had three games this season where they've rushed for more than 100 yards (and their running average stat bloated up after their victory of NMSU, where they ran for a season high 310 yards). I suspect Idaho will still try to get a run game going against ASU, and wouldn't be shocked if they ran via the Pistol (which was working effectively against the Red Wolves). But this isn't the Cajun O-Line the ASU Defense will be going against, so I'm no too terribly worried they'll be whipped as badly. What does concern me and could be the Vandals saving grace is the turnovers; as spectacular as Fredi has been playing, he has been a turnover machine and the Vandals D has been averaging 2 takeaways a game. If Idaho can match their season average (if not more) they'll make this a game.

MISC: KIBBIE DOME

Moscow, Idaho is located in the northwesterly part of the state. The city (with a population of a little over 23,000) is extremely difficult to travel to, especially if you're a football team. Many teams actually travel to Spokane, Washington, then bus southwards for over an hour and a half until they reach Moscow (which is what Astate is doing). It's an extremely lengthy, mind numbing trip. We haven't given gotten to the venue; the Kibbie Dome.

The Kibbie Dome hosts both the football and basketball teams (along with many other sporting and entertainment events) and has a max capacity of about 16,000.  Despite being only 1-6 on the season, the Vandals are still averaging 14,938 patrons. With such a small, intimate environment, the noise factor will definitely play a role in this game. I would dare to say the Red Wolves haven't faced a loud, hostile environment since the Tennessee game back in September.

PREDICTION: Red Wolves Should Bounce Back

Make no mistake, this is still a trap game for the Pack. South Alabama looms next Saturday in Jonesboro and if the Jaguars can pull off another improbable victory over the Cajuns, it makes the November 8th match-up all the more important. Idaho is hoping Arkansas State not only has that thought in mind, but also is still lingering over the defeat at the hands of the Cajuns. If this game had been played immediately following the lost, I would have feared both would have occurred. However, Arkansas State has had nearly 2 weeks to shake off the Lafayette game. Despite the long travel, they should be WELL RESTED and mended up. Though the game is ultimately played on the field, everything on paper and leading up to this point says Arkansas State is more talented team, with a lot to play for. 

Arkansas State needs to come out swinging right out of the gate, and take Idaho and their fans out of this game early. If their's any sluggish play or turnover/penalty problems, then the Red Wolves could have a fight on their hands. However, this isn't Harsin or his staff; I have full confidence Anderson and Crew will have Arkansas State prepared and wouldn't be surprsised if this turns into another Georgia State game.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Arkansas State and Idaho will have a competitive first quarter, but the explosive play of Fredi Knighten, a trick play followed with a clutch forced turnover and the Red Wolves will sail away from the Vandals by the second quarter and the game. ASTATE 42, Idaho 28

Reaction to Week 7 Sunbelt Action

Reactions to Week 7 

New Mexico State @ Troy
(My Prediction: 28-17 NMSU)
(Actual Result: Troy 41-24)

The Trojans certainly made sure Larry Blakeney wasn't going to lose his final homecoming game at Troy. The Trojans had their best showing of the 2014 season, having over 570 total yards, and forcing 4 Aggies turnovers in their 17 point victory. The Aggies just never could get anything going consistently, and never were able to take a lead getting as close as 3 early, then never closer than 10 points for the remainder of the game. It's looking like whatever early momentum New Mexico State had is officially flushed down the toilet, and with a depleted and demoralized App State coming to Troy next Saturday, Trojans look to make a roaring second half season comeback.


Arkansas State @ Georgia State
(My Prediction: 34-27 ASU
Actual Results: 52-10 ASU)

Wow...what a performance by the Red Wolves. This has been the most complete game the Pack has played all season, completely steam rolling the Panthers both offensively and defensively. Despite only having 1 win on the season coming into the game, Georgia State had been looking very competitive all season long and were bringing in a very high scoring, pass happy offense. I think I can speak for both Red Wolves and Panthers fans alike when I say for a squad to give preseason favs Lafayette all they could handle a week before, to only having 269 total yards and 10 points on homecoming was a little surprising. Heading into the BYE, Red Wolves are on cloud 9 whereas Georgia State are left wondering when will they finally get that coveted 1st Sunbelt Conference win.



Idaho @ Georgia Southern
(My Prediction: 45-23 Ga. Southern)
(Actual Results: 47-24 Ga. Southern)

Though the game went right as about as I expected, still can't help but applaud the Vandals effort. Definitely were trying to throw all the stops to get the upset win, jumping to an early lead and then going for multiple 4th down attempts but the Eagles machine simply wore down the Vandals and rumbled on to another victory. Georgia Southern is looking unstoppable for the time being, and with their hardest games left appearing to be at Texas State and at Navy (which I'm definitely looking forward to), it's starting to appear the once thought of out side shot of winning the conference is starting to turn into reality.

Liberty @ Appalachian State
(My Prediction: 45-27 App. State)
(Actual Results: 55-48 OT Liberty)

Appalachian State started off brilliantly, going for and recovering an onside kick to start the game and scoring the very next play. Then horrid mistakes began to make their way into the game, first with the Mountaineers scoring on a Liberty fumbling, then Appalachian State returning the favor a few series later, with the Flames taking a 39 yard fumble return for a score. Ultimately, penalties along with two missed field goals and an interception thrown in OT doomed Appalachian State and Liberty scored the win they coveted over the Belt. Mountaineers have lost 4 straight, and with Troy looking to have found an offense now, it's certainly appearing the Mountaineers may not even get to 4 wins on the season.


ULM @ Kentucky
(My Prediction: 49-26 Kentucky)
(Actual Prediction: 48-14)

ULM certainly jumped out to a fast start, surprising the Wildcats and led 14-3 to end the first. It certainly appeared ULM might give Kentucky all they could handle early...then the Wildcats offense woke up and scored on a 83 yard touchdown pass to get within 4, 14-10. Then Pete Thomas threw a pick six...and before you know it Kentucky goes on to pile on another 38 unanswered points to crush ULM 48-14. Monroe just looked inept for most of the game, not even getting to 80 rushing yards and turning the ball over two more times. The BYE couldn't have come at a better time for the Warhawks, and if they hope to have any semblance of a successful season they have to get their offensive woes sorted out before hosting a potentially red hot Texas State squad.

Sunbelt Week Seven Thoughts and Predictions

Game of the Week: New Mexico State @ Troy
Despite it being a bye week for the men of Troy last week, they definitely were making the top headlines with the sudden (albeit NOT surprising announcement) of Larry Blakeney's retirement from the program, and it's that fact alone I pick this as my SBC game of the week. The Trojans have been abysmal so far, going 0-5 in the 2014 campaign (the worst stretch so far in Blakeney's 23 years at Troy). However, they did show some life and even some fight in their 2 point losing effort to the Warhawks two weeks ago, and now that the team knows their's only going to be 4 home games left in Blakeney's tenure, have to wonder if this will inspire the team to make sure he doesn't go out winless in Troy. The Aggies meanwhile have lost 4 straight and are desperate to salvage the 2014 season. Both squads have given up nearly 40 points a game, and yet this game might come down to which team can make the crucial defensive stop.

(PREDICTION: Despite it being homecoming for Troy ((and Larry's last one at that)), I still think New Mexico State has more of a consistent, balanced offense and will be able to stop their bleeding. 28-17 NMSU)


Arkansas State @ Georgia State
The Red Wolves have been a very undisciplined sqad; in 5 games they have averaged 8 penalties a game for 73 yards. On top of that atrocious stat, the pack has been turning the ball over nearly 2 1/2 times a game. Yet somehow, Astate is 3-2 and 1-0 in 2014. They travel to Atlanta to face a wounded yet hungry Panthers team still looking for their first ever SBC conference win, and looking to get it in front of a homecoming crowd. Can they do it? Quite possibily. Georgia State has got quite a potent offense, averaging over 300 passing yards and scoring about 30 points a game so far. However, can they keep up those averages against a fast and stingy Astate defense that ranks #50 out of 128 in FBS? 

(PREDICTION: If Red Wolves want to continue their winning ways and stay in the hunt for their 4th conference title, they HAVE to start limiting the penalties and the turnovers. Until that happens, every team they play has a great chance to win. Yet with that being said, I've been impressed with how they've continued to defy the odds and win, and I think they'll find a way-in the 4th-to pull away from Georgia State. 34-27 ASU)


Idaho @ Georgia Southern
The Eagles continue to be the darlings of the conference, and are looking to continue their seemingly historic run in their first full year as an FBS member. Though it took awhile to get going, Georgia Southern rattled off 29 unanswered points after being down 14-0 early in the game to secure their 4th win on the season. Georgia Southern now carried their 4-2, 3-0 conference record into their homecoming match up with the lowly Idaho Vandals. Despite being 0-5 Idaho boasts the nations #13 passing game, averaging almost 330 yards a game. They're going to need the passing game as the Eagles look to utilize their #1 ranked rushing attack to methodically drive, score and kill the clock (their's only been two times this season that the Eagles haven't held onto the bowl longer than 30 minutes).

PREDICTION: The Vandals have been a hard team to read so far this season; They've been more competitive and offensively more productive on the road than at home. The trend would appear to be that they should put up big numbers in Statesboro. Whether they do or not will be irrelevant as the Eagles should be the more talented and motivated team and should roll over Idaho. 45-23 Ga. Sou

Liberty @ Appalachian State
It's been a bumpy start for the Mountaineers in their first year at the FBS level. It seems since that heart breaking 21-20 lost to Southern Miss nearly three weeks ago, App State hasn't been able to collect themselves and rebound, getting trounced 81-35 in their past two games. However, after taking their licks to the seemingly better teams of the belt, Mountaineers will have a chance to redeem their 2014 season with a road trip to the woeful 0-5 Troy coming up, followed by a home match-up with a Georgia State team that (AS OF THIS POSTING) still hasn't won a conference game in their two year stint in the league. It's a pretty good setup...ASSUMING they can get bye a pesky Liberty Flames team. While their's nothing too particularly special about this Flames unit, gotta assume and expect Liberty will have some extra motivation to make a show (and dare I say an example) to the Sunbelt world by knocking off Appalachian State.

PREDICTION: The Flames will come out swinging hard, and I wouldn't be shocked if they even have a lead at half. Appalachian State will fight back and with their balanced offense be able to pull away and get their second victory on the season. 45-27 APP

ULM @ Kentucky
If you're a ULM Warhawks fan, you have to got to be wondering what will it take for this team to get over the hump and take the next step; one minute you're 3-1 with a 2-0 conference mark heading into a big time game against Arkansas State and in a flash, you've just lost by 14 points and now face a DAUNTING schedule, playing on the road 3 out of the next 4 contests; what makes this even worse is the fact two of the three opponents are SEC teams. Can it get any worse? Why yes it can-this isn't the Wildcats of old as this squad was only one or two plays away from being 5-0 and being on top of the SEC East. Still, they pack a potent offense and their defense is only allowing 19 points a game. When you consider that ULM is barely averaging 18 points a game, this just doesn't bode well for ULM.

PREDICTION: ULM has been the giant killers for the Sunbelt and already have a victory notched in their belt against Kentucky. However, they won't be able to add to it this time around as Kentucky is too talented and too hot of a team for an inconsistent Warhawks squad to topple. 49-26 Kentucky