THE ASU BOWL

On what will be an incredibly cold November Saturday, in quite possibly some wintry mix, the Red Wolves of Arkansas State will host the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the first of (probably) many matchups that both fanbases have already dubbed "The ASU Bowl." Seeing how I'm already late on making my preview post and lacking in creativity at the moment, we'll just borrow the nickname! Arkansas State comes into this game winners of five out of their last six contests, outscoring their opponents nearly 100 points. However, App State certainly appears to be hitting their stride, as they are winners of three straight contests, including a thrilling last second field goal to secure their upset over ULM 31-29. Will the suddenly red hot Mountaineers make it four in a row and knock off another long time Sunbelt member, or can the Red Wolves buckle down and ice Appalachian State to make them 7-3 overall? 

Appalachian State At This Point

As previously mentioned, the Mountaineers have been rolling and reeled off three straight victories, including dominant performances over Troy and Georgia State. However, things didn't quite start off well for App State. The much hyped rematch between ASU and Michigan certainly didn't live up to its 2007 contest and the Mountaineers were blown out 52-14. Though they did quickly rebound and thumped the Camels of Campbell, App State would go on to lose four straight including 20+ loses to arch rival Georgia Southern and South Alabama. The biggest dud of the season actually came in a home overtime lost to the Liberty Flames. Sitting at a mere 1-5, many questioned if Appalachian State could really get to three wins. However, they've managed to shape up and cut down on fundamental mistakes and currently sit at 4-5 overall, hoping to continue their winning ways and push their win total to six.

Keys to the Game:

#1. Turnovers

When you look at App State's games so far this season, particularly comparing the stats from the games they've won and games they lost, their's one glaring difference between the two that makes it pretty apparent as to what led to their downfalls in the defeats and certainly helped in the victories:

Turnovers:

Games Mountaineers Lost:

-Michigan: No turnovers

-Southern Miss :3 turnovers

-Georgia Southern: 2 turnovers

-South Alabama: 3 turnovers

-Liberty:  4 turnovers

Games Mountaineers Won:

-Campbell: 1 turnover

-Troy: 1 turnover

-Georgia State:  48 yards, 

-ULM: 1 turnover

As you can see, when App State turns the ball over multiple times, they've lost. When you also consider that Arkansas state has forced 12 turnovers in their last two games, and the Red Wolves currently sit at +/- 6 on their turnover margin this season, if you're a Mountaineer fan you are PRAYING to the football gods that Appalachian State doesn't turn the ball over. Arkansas State has shown when you give them gifts, they will more times than not capitalize. If the Mountaineers want a chance at the upset, they have got to protect the ball at all costs.

Key #2: Quarterback Play

We have two very interesting and more importantly, clutch quarterbacks coming into the "ASU Bowl" and their play will at the least go a long way into determining the victor on Saturday. Freshman Taylor Lamb split time with previous starting QB Kameron Bryant, but by the Southern Miss game was given his first collegiate start. Despite losing a heart breaker to the Golden Eagles by one point, Lamb played a pretty decent game going 28/40 for 264 yards, two touchdowns but threw two picks. The App State coaches have stuck by him so far this season, and his season completion rate sits right at nearly 62% and has thrown 11 total touchdowns. He's also been the teams third leading rusher, carrying the ball 59 times for 376 and accounting for three additional touchdowns. He's had issues with throwing interceptions, with seven thrown so far this season. He's young yet he's shown he indeed has what it takes to be a dual threat, very capable quarterback.

On the flip side we have Fredi Knighten,who after having a part time role for ASU has exploded in his first true season as a starting quarterback. In just two seasons, he has ran for nearly 900 yards, thrown for 2,280 and has accounted for 27 total touchdowns. As every game has gone on this season, he's truly been improving, particularly in his deep, down-field passing. 

Both ASUs are going to need their quarterbacks to make plays and though Lamb certainly has shown flashes of big play capability, I just feel Knighten is a little bit more fined tuned.

WildCard: Weather

As of this blog, the only certain aspect of the weather Saturday is the temperature: COLD, COLD, COLD. Throughout the week, their have been several different "weather models" that range from cold rain to wintry mix, as well as giving the winter weather chance from 0% chance to 66%, depending on if you prefer Weather Channel or Accuweather. The Mountaineers faithful certainly seem confident the cold weather will not negatively effect their beloved squad, some even thinking it'll give them the winning edge. While I certainly think many of the Red Wolves players are quite accustomed to playing in the cold, if their is some type of wintry weather during the game, you would have to think it may play a huge factor, especially in the play calling and turnover battle (not to mention the crowd at Centennial Bank Stadium).

PREDICTION:

Despite extremely crappy, cold and possibly wet conditions, Red Wolves will howl to seven victories in a surprisingly low scoring, field position battle.

Even if their actually is no precipitation whatsoever, both teams want this badly (duh)-but will be wary of the others potent offense. After a sudden yet fantastic performance at absolutely shutting down the Jaguars attack (especially their running game) the Red Wolves defense is back after a waning performance from the the La-La and Idaho games. Both defenses will be gunning for the quarterbacks in order to get them uncomfortable and out of sync, but Arkansas State will rattle Lamb a little bit more due to his youth. I wouldn't be shocked if the game is tied or it's a one posession lead for either team going into the 4th, but with dynamic play-maker JD Mckissic back, Red Wolves will make the clutch and timely plays and pull away in the 4th from a fiesty Appalachian State squad

SCORE PREDICTION: Astate 28, App State 17