Two teams...both have had their high moments as well as their lows....quite a few injuries for both teams, yet the two football squads both have high aspirations for the '14 season. One of them has a good chance to achieve their goal, but it'll come at the expense of the other. Who will fill that role? Let's find out!
SOUTH AL: THEIR 2014 SEASON SO FAR...
Many had tabulate the Jaguars of South Alabama to be a "dark horse" for the Sunbelt crown going into the '14 season, though they didn't begin with a hot start. Following their season opening victory on the road against Kent State, USA would be held to zero touchdowns for the next two games against Mississippi State and Georgia Southern (only scoring a combined nine points from field goals). Granted, the Bulldogs and Eagles are playing phenomenal football though Jaguar fans couldn't help but feel disappointed by the lack of execution and competitiveness, especially since both games were in Mobile.
However, South Al would be able to turn things around and win their next four contests winning at Idaho, at Appalachian State, followed by back to back home victories over Georgia State and in-state rival Troy. After only averaging barely 11 points a game in September it seemed the offense had righted the sinking ship and improved their scoring average to nearly 35 in the month of October...
...then last Saturday on the road in Lafayette, South Al's offense was virtually non-existent; they scored 9 points the entire game (missed a PAT after their second quarter TD). Though USA was neck in neck with the Cajuns, their offense sputtered and misfired for majority of the game and if it weren't for the Jaguar defense playing their hearts out, Lafayette could've made it an ugly game. However, the Jaguars lost in Cajunland 19-9, and ended their winning streak. They now travel to Jonesboro with a 5-3 record overall, 4-2 in SBC play.
KEY POINTS/STATS FOR THE GAME:
ASU's Running D (or Lack Of)
In case you missed this little tib-bit from my review of ASU's iffy victory over the Vandals, let me reiterate this stat: in their last TWO GAMES, the Red Wolves defense has surrendered over 660 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns....and that's not a misprint. South Al's best chance at scoring their first victory over Arkansas State is to establish and cram the run DOWN ASU's throat, over and over again. It worked fabulously for Lafayette, and had Idaho found a way to somehow not lose the ball eight times, probably would've scored the upset over the Pack...which leads me to my next key....
Turnover Battle
The reason why ASU is 5-3 and not 4-4 is because of eight Vandals turnovers-four from the air and four from the ground. You can run and pass to your delight but if you cough the ball up THAT many times, you're almost certain to lose. Red Wolves took advantage of nearly every takeaway and ended up securing a 16 point victory. The Jaguars have been pretty good by not having a whole lot of turnovers (their worst being four against the now number one team in the country, Mississippi State). In fact, up until their heartbreaking fumble on the Cajuns 4 yard line last week, USA hadn't had a single turnover since their September 27th trip to the Kibbie Dome. As obvious as this will sound, it will certainly never ring truer than in this game: whoever limits their mistakes and capitalizes on the gifts will most certainly win, which brings me to key #3...
Penalties...Good God.
Their's NO WAY to sugar coat this, so I'll be blunt: both teams have been GOD AWFUL when it comes to penalties. ASU has had 64 penalties for 546 yards, while the Jaguars have totaled 57 for 517. Combined, that's 121 penalties for 1063 yards (that's over half of a mile worth of penalties!!). It may or may not be THE deciding facor in this game, but you'd have to think whoever can play a cleaner game will have the better opportunity at victory.
Kickers
I absolutely think this will be a tough, back and forth affair and it could possibly come down to field position, which you know that means: kicking game. If you read my previous post, you know my disdain for ASU kicker Luke Ferguson's inconsistent kicking throughout the season. In terms of percentage, Ferguson has only made 58% of his field goal attempts this year (most coming from 20-29 yards out) and has missed five PATs already this year. On the flip side for South Alabama, they've employed two kickers for their field goals and XPTs-Aleem Sunannon and Grant McLaurin. While both haven't had overly impressive numbers, combined they've only missed three extra points and three field goal attempts. Now Luke does have a little bit stronger of a leg when it comes to punting and kickoffs, (I won't bother throwing additional numbers but if you don't take my word you can compare Luke's kicking stats Here and USA's here) but at the end of the day points matter more than net yards.
Prediction: Red Wolves once again squeak by last second against the Jags
The South Alabama Jaguars can win this Saturday. And if Arkansas State once again starts to sputter on offense as well as can't tackle or stop the USA running game, they could win in the double digits. They boast a very balanced offensive attack, averaging 204 passing yards and 194 yards rushing a game. On top of that, their defense has played stout for most of the season, only allowing 20 points a game. However, when you consider that AL.com reported today that the Jaguars have a lot of key players that are either questionable, game time decisions or even out (including starting QB Brandon Bridge and stud LB Maleki Harris), and then throw on top of that having to travel to Arkansas State, where they've only lost three Sunbelt Conference games at home since the 2010 season, I think Red Wolves have a the slight edge, even if Bridge ends up playing for South Alabama. The Red Wolves DO NOT want this turning into a defensive game or a battle of the field goal game-both will end up favoring South Alabama.
This will be a very close affair; USA will once again pound away at the ASU defense, and though they will give up chunks of yards on the ground, I think ASU defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen will be able to adjust and at least keep the Jags from running up and down the field. USA will still be able to move the ball and score, but so will Arkansas State. Their will be penalties and their will be turnovers; once again, I think they'll be an extremely key and costly turnover for the opposing Jaguars and the Red Wolves will capitalize on it and will pull out a hard fought affair from both squads.
Arkansas State-34
South Alabama-28
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